The Relative Importance of Factors Influencing Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensity Changes

Bhalachandran Saiprasanth; Haddad Ziad S.; Hristova‐Veleva Svetla M.; Marks Jr. F. D.

摘要

Abstract > Predicting rapid intensity changes in tropical cyclones (TCs) is a major challenge due to the influence of multiple competing processes within the vortex and in the TC environment. We present an empirical framework that quantifies the <fi>relative importance</fi> of the various factors that influence critical transitions in TC intensities. Our analysis of model simulations of recent TCs over the Bay of Bengal identifies the following variables <fi>within the vortex</fi> as the biggest influence on TC rapid intensity changes: the amplitudes of wave number 1 of 700‐ to 850‐mb horizontal moisture flux convergence and precipitation in the rainband region and the amplitude of wave number 0 of precipitation within the radius of maximum winds. Likewise, the most important <fi>environmental</fi> variables identified are the angle between the driest air and the shear vector and the magnitude of vertical wind shear. These findings provide guidance on guidance for future observational efforts and data assimilation into TC forecasting models. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><Abstract Type =“Main”XML：Lang =“en”XML：ID =“Grl58225-Abs-Abs-0001”> <标题类型=“main”>抽象</ title> >预测热带气旋中的快速强度变化（ TCS）是由于涡旋内部和TC环境中多次竞争过程的影响导致的主要挑战。我们提出了一个经验框架，这些框架量化了影响TC强度关键转变的各种因素的<fi>相对重要性。我们对孟加拉湾近期TCS模型模拟的分析标识了涡旋内的下列变量</ Fi>作为对TC快速强度的最大影响：700至850-MB的波数1的幅度水平水分助长磁通量收敛和雨带区域的沉淀和最大风的半径内的沉淀波数0的幅度。同样，识别的最重要的<fi>环境</ fi>变量是干燥空气和剪切矢量之间的角度以及垂直风剪的大小。这些调查结果为未来观察力的指导提供了指导，并向TC预测模型提供了数据兼并。 </ p> </ abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-23539/'>《Geophysical Research Letters》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2019年第4期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共11页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Bhalachandran Saiprasanth&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Bhalachandran Saiprasanth;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Haddad Ziad S.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Haddad Ziad S.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Hristova‐Veleva Svetla M.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Hristova‐Veleva Svetla M.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Marks Jr. F. D.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Marks Jr. F. D.;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Department of Earth Atmospheric and Planetary SciencesPurdue UniversityWest Lafayette IN USA;</p> <p>Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadena CA USA;</p> <p>Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadena CA USA;</p> <p>NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research DivisionMiami FL USA;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/163.html" title="地球物理学">地球物理学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Tropical cyclone&option=203" rel="nofollow">Tropical cyclone;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=rapid intensification&option=203" rel="nofollow">rapid intensification;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=rapid weakening&option=203" rel="nofollow">rapid weakening;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=symmetric and asymmetric convection&option=203" rel="nofollow">symmetric and asymmetric convection;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=bay of bengal&option=203" rel="nofollow">bay of bengal;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=linear discriminant analysis&option=203" rel="nofollow">linear discriminant analysis;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：热带旋风;快速增强;快速削弱;对称与不对称;孟加拉湾;线性判别分析; </div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent66">相似文献</h3> <div class="similaritytab clearfix"> <ul> <li class="active" >外文文献</li> <li >中文文献</li> <li >专利</li> </ul> </div> <div class="similarity_details"> <ul > <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/journal-foreign-detail/0704019853056.html">The Relative Importance of Factors Influencing Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensity Changes</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Bhalachandran Saiprasanth&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Bhalachandran Saiprasanth,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Haddad Ziad S.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Haddad Ziad S.,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Hristova‐Veleva Svetla M.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Hristova‐Veleva Svetla M.,</a> <a href="/journal-foreign-23539/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor">Geophysical Research Letters .</a> <span>2019</span><span>,第4期</span> </span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：影响热带气旋的因素的相对重要性快速强度变化</span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>2. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-journal-foreign_advances-space-research_thesis/0204122214621.html">Influence of eddies and tropical cyclone heat potential on intensity changes of tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=B. 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