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首页> 外文期刊>Geophysical Research Letters >Climate Change and Social Unrest: A 6,000-Year Chronicle From the Eastern Mediterranean
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Climate Change and Social Unrest: A 6,000-Year Chronicle From the Eastern Mediterranean

机译：气候变化和社会动荡：来自东地中海东部的6000年纪事

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摘要

The history of the Eastern Mediterranean is punctuated by major crises that have influenced many of the region's established socioeconomic models. Recent studies have underscored the role of drought and temperature oscillations in driving changes but attempts to quantify their magnitude remain equivocal, hindering long-term assessments of the potential interplay between climate and society. Here, we fill this knowledge gap using a 6,000-year pollen-based reconstruction of temperature and precipitation from Hala Sultan Tekke, Cyprus. We find that major social changes and plague outbreaks often occurred in tandem with cooler climate conditions, with anomalies ranging from -3 +/- 0.4 degrees C to -1 +/- 0.5 degrees C, coupled with changing precipitation patterns. We suggest that major climate changes may weaken societies by affecting primary livelihood systems. This long-term view highlights recurrent cold periods in the Eastern Mediterranean's climate history and advocates that, despite frequent adversity and pandemics, Near Eastern populations adapted and were ultimately resilient to major climate changes.
机译：东地中海的历史被影响了许多地区建立的社会经济模型的主要危机点缀。最近的研究强调了干旱和温度振荡在驾驶变化方面的作用，但试图量化其幅度仍然是抵抗的，阻碍了气候和社会之间潜在相互作用的长期评估。在这里，我们利用塞浦路斯Hala Sultan Tekke的6,000年的花粉改造，填补了这一知识差距。我们发现主要的社会变化和瘟疫爆发通常发生在伴随的气候条件下，异常从-3 +/- 0.4度C到-1 +/- 0.5摄氏度，加上变化的降水模式。我们认为，主要的气候变化可能会影响主要生命系统的社会。这一长期观点突出了地中海的气候历史中的经常性冷时期，尽管常见的逆境和流行病，但近东部种群适应并最终是对重大气候变化的影响。

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