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The 'sweet spot' for maple syrup production proposed by Rapp et al. (2019) is not that sweet

机译：RAPP等人提出的枫糖浆生产的“甜蜜点”。 （2019）不是那么甜蜜

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In their paper recently published in FEM ("Finding the sweet spot: Shifting climate optima for maple syrup production in North America"), Rapp et al. (2019) suggest that there is a marked "sweet spot" for maple syrup production (i.e., a climatic optimum associated with much higher yield) centered around the 43rd parallel. They also project that this climatic optimum could move 400 km northward in the future, as climate change drives temperatures to increase. As a result of this shift, they also predict that maple syrup production in the northeastern United States will rapidly decline in the next decades, and that the whole maple syrup industry could be at risk in several states. At the same time, they predict that maple syrup production will markedly increase in southeastern Canada, especially in the province of Quebec. Here we show that the predictive model built and used by Rapp et al. (2019) to project future maple syrup yield from climate scenarios is biased and presents several major flaws. We then demonstrate, using a data set of historical data many orders of magnitude larger than the one used by Rapp et al. (2019), that maple syrup yield is remarkably stable across a broad latitudinal and temperature gradient and therefore, that no climate optimum exists. This exercise leads us to conclude that the collapse of the U.S. maple syrup industry predicted by Rapp et al. (2019) is not based on solid evidence.
机译：在他们的论文中最近发表在FEM（“寻找甜蜜的地方：在北美的枫糖浆生产的气候最佳地区”），Rapp等人。 （2019年）建议为枫糖浆生产有一个标记的“甜蜜点”（即，与高度高的产量相关的气候最佳）围绕43平行以来。他们还在将来的气候最佳期间推动了这一气候最佳，因为气候变化推动了温度增加的温度。由于这种转变，他们还预测，美国东北部的枫糖浆产量在未来几十年中将迅速下滑，而整个枫糖浆行业可能面临若干州的风险。与此同时，他们预测加拿大东南部的枫糖浆产量明显增加，特别是在魁北克省。在这里，我们表明RAPP等人建造和使用的预测模型。 （2019年）将未来的项目从气候情景中均有偏见，呈现出几个主要缺陷。然后，我们使用历史数据的数据集来演示许多数量级大于RAPP等人使用的数量级。 （2019），枫糖浆产量在广泛的纬度和温度梯度方面具有显着稳定，因此不存在气候最佳。这项练习使我们得出结论，美国枫树糖浆行业的崩溃，由RAPP等人预测。 （2019）不是基于固体证据。

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  • 来源
    《Forest Ecology and Management》 |2020年第2020期|共5页
  • 作者

    Houle Daniel; Duchesne Louis;

  • 作者单位

    Minist Forets Faune &

    Parcs Foret Quebec Direct Rech Forestiere 2700 Rue Einstein Quebec City PQ G1P 3W8 Canada;

    Minist Forets Faune &

    Parcs Foret Quebec Direct Rech Forestiere 2700 Rue Einstein Quebec City PQ G1P 3W8 Canada;

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  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 林业;
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