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首页> 外文期刊>Physica, A. Statistical mechanics and its applications >Self-excitation in the solar flare waiting time distribution
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Self-excitation in the solar flare waiting time distribution

机译：太阳耀斑等待时间分布的自我激励

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摘要

Solar flares release high amounts of energy into the solar system and can negatively impact earth based systems through their effects on satellites and power systems. It is hence important to understand and forecast their occurrence. The solar flare waiting time distribution (WTD) defines the amount of time which elapses between the occurrence of successive flares and hence provides a starting point for forecasts and risk assessment. Previous research has hypothesized that the observed WTD can be derived from a simple model which posits that flares follow a nonstationary Poisson process. This Poissonian assumption has implications for fundamental physical theories about the origin of flares, since it is a direct consequence of the widely studied avalanche model. However in this paper we call the Poissonian assumption into question, by showing that the occurrence of solar flares seems to have a substantial amount of burstiness and self-excitation that continues to exist even when controlling for the solar cycle. This leads to a strong non-Poissonian dependence between the occurrence time of successive flares. Crown Copyright (C) 2020 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
机译：太阳耀斑将大量的能量释放到太阳系中，并通过对卫星和电力系统的影响产生基于地球的系统。因此，理解和预测他们的发生是重要的。太阳耀斑等待时间分布（WTD）定义了连续耀斑发生之间经过的时间量，因此为预测和风险评估提供了起点。以前的研究已经假设观察到的WTD可以从一个简单的模型中衍生出来，该模型展开了耀斑遵循非间断泊松过程。这种泊松假设对关于耀斑起源的基本物理理论有影响，因为它是广泛研究的雪崩模型的直接后果。然而，在本文中，我们称之为泊松假设，通过表明太阳耀斑的发生似乎具有大量的突起和自我激发，即使在控制太阳循环时也持续存在。这导致了连续耀斑的发生时间之间的强烈非泊松依赖。皇家版权（c）2020由elestvier b.v发布。保留所有权利。

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