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An index for predicting the onset of monsoon over Kerala

机译:预测喀拉拉邦季风发作的指数

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摘要

Forecasting the onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala is one of the important events in the operational forecasts of the India Meteorological Department. There are several criteria followed across the forecasting community to achieve this. In this article, we propose an index (Monsoon Onset Forecast Index; MOFI), developed with averaged outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and averaged kinetic energy as proxies. Twenty-year composite analysis shows significant increase in the kinetic energy and decrease in the OLR five days before the onset, and the MOFI becomes positive. Application of this index has been tested for 13 subsequent years and it is found that the index performs well.
机译:预报喀拉拉邦西南季风的爆发是印度气象局业务预报中的重要事件之一。整个预测社区遵循以下几个标准来实现这一目标。在本文中,我们提出了一个指数(季风发作预报指数; MOFI),该指数是用平均出射长波辐射(OLR)和平均动能作为代理得出的。二十年的综合分析显示,发病前五天动能显着增加,OLR降低,MOFI呈阳性。该指数的应用已经连续13年进行了测试,发现该指数表现良好。

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