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首页> 外文期刊>Current Science: A Fortnightly Journal of Research >New forecast models for Indian south-west monsoon, season rainfall
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New forecast models for Indian south-west monsoon, season rainfall

机译：印度西南季风，季节降雨的新预报模型

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摘要

The 2002 forecast for the Indian south-west monsoon by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), New Delhi went awry. This prompted severe criticism over the validity of the existing 16-Parameter Power Regression Statistical Model for Long Range Forecast (LRF). As a backlash, the IMD seems to have attempted to save its face by developing a new set of LRF models, unveiled to the media by R. R. Kelkar, Director General, IMD on 16 April 2003. Kelkar has, however, denied that criticism had anything to do with making new models. He said the character of the monsoon season of July 2002 had been 'unique' and the nature of the anomaly by either hindsight or retrofitting could not yet be pinpointed. Figure 1 shows the performance of operational forecasts between 1988 and 2002.
机译：新德里印度气象局（IMD）对印度西南季风2002年的预报出现了偏差。这引发了对现有的16参数远程回归统计模型进行远程预测（LRF）有效性的严重批评。作为强烈反对，IMD似乎试图通过开发一套新的LRF模型来挽回面子，该模型由IMD总干事RR Kelkar在2003年4月16日向媒体揭露。然而，Kelkar否认批评有任何作为与制作新模型有关。他说，2002年7月季风季节的特征是“独特的”，通过事后观察或改造无法确定异常的性质。图1显示了1988年至2002年之间的运营预测表现。

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