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首页> 外文期刊>Current Science: A Fortnightly Journal of Research >Population viability analysis for herbaceous vegetation: A stochastic model and projections by simulation
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Population viability analysis for herbaceous vegetation: A stochastic model and projections by simulation

机译：草本植被种群生存力分析：随机模型和模拟预测

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摘要

Population viability analysis (PVA) is one of the major areas of research in ecological studies. Rapidity of changes occurring to biodiversity has increased the importance of PVA. Demographic and environmental stochastic events are continuously influencing population viability. Anthropogenic activities are altering these dimensions of operation, and are pressurizing the viability of population. Under these changing scenarios, it is imperative to find out how a population is driven towards extinction,and at what stage(s) human intervention is necessary to alter the course of direction. Keeping this in mind, the present study has been made to propose a suitable model and to study its behaviour through simulation experiments for PVA. The model is developed keeping herbaceous plants with three distinct phases in life cycle as a background. Different shocks occurring at the three phases separately and the fourth one occurring at any of the phases are considered in this study to take care of environmental stochasticity. Probabilities of occurrence of shocks and their levels of likely impact on population are considered. In all the simulations, population showed a 'perfect' oscillation. The long-term simulations revealed that the population oscillated between sizeable numbers. The model can be used to check the population viability exposed to environmental shocks with different probabilities. It can be used to find out critical levels of population for its continuity of existence. The model is good for populations with minimal dispersal abilities. The model can be used to predict the continuity of heterogeneous herbaceous populations where the species are functioning largely as facilitators.
机译：人口生存力分析（PVA）是生态学研究的主要领域之一。生物多样性发生变化的速度加快了PVA的重要性。人口和环境随机事件持续影响着人口的生存能力。人为活动正在改变这些活动的规模，并给人口的生存能力带来压力。在这些不断变化的情况下，必须找出人口是如何走向灭绝的，以及在什么阶段需要人工干预才能改变方向。牢记这一点，已进行本研究以提出合适的模型并通过PVA的仿真实验研究其行为。该模型的开发以生命周期中三个不同阶段的草本植物为背景。在本研究中，考虑了分别在三个阶段发生的不同冲击和在任何一个阶段发生的第四次冲击，以照顾环境的随机性。考虑了发生冲击的可能性及其对人口的影响程度。在所有模拟中，总体显示出“完美”的振荡。长期的模拟显示，人口在相当数量之间波动。该模型可用于检查暴露于具有不同概率的环境冲击的种群生存力。它可以用来找出人口生存的临界水平。该模型适用于分散能力最小的人群。该模型可用于预测物种在很大程度上起促进作用的异质草种群的连续性。

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