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首页> 外文期刊>Current Science: A Fortnightly Journal of Research >Changing streamflow patterns in the rivers of northwestern Himalaya: Implications of global warming in the 20th century
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Changing streamflow patterns in the rivers of northwestern Himalaya: Implications of global warming in the 20th century

机译：喜马拉雅山西北部河流中不断变化的水流模式：20世纪全球变暖的影响

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摘要

The results of trend analyses of the discharge data of four rivers in northwestern Himalaya, namely Beas Chenab, Ravi and Satluj, are presented here and the impact of climate change in the last century is discussed. In the case of Satluj river, studies indicate an episodic variation in discharge in all three seasons on a longer timescale of about 82 years (1922-2004). Statistically significant decrease in the average annual and monsoon discharge and insignificant increase in winter and spring discharge, despite increasing temperatures during all the three seasons can also be seen. Decreasing discharge during winter and monsoon seasons in the post-1990 period, despite rising temperatures and average monsoon precipitation strongly indicates decreasing contribution of glaciers to the discharge and their gradual disappearance. On a shorter timescale of the last four decades of the 20th century, barring the Beas river, which shows a significantly decreasing trend, the other three rivers have shown a statistically insignificant change (at 95% confidence level) in their average annual discharge. Annual peak flood discharges show significant increasing trends in the Satluj and Chenab basins, significant decreasing trend in the Beas river and insignificant trend in the Ravi river. Notwithstanding these variations, the studies indicate an increase in the number of 'high-magnitude flood' events in the rivers in northwestern Himalaya in the last three decades.
机译：本文介绍了喜马拉雅山西北部的四条河流（Beas Chenab，Ravi和Satluj）的流量数据趋势分析结果，并讨论了上个世纪气候变化的影响。以萨特鲁吉河为例，研究表明，在所有三个季节中，排放量均呈周期性变化，持续时间约为82年（1922-2004年）。尽管在所有三个季节中温度均升高，但年均和季风排放量在统计上显着下降，而冬季和春季排放量则无明显增加。尽管温度升高和季风平均降水量增加，但1990年后冬季和季风季节的流量减少，这强烈表明冰川对流量的贡献减少，并逐渐消失。在20世纪最后四十年的较短时间尺度上，除非比斯河显着下降，否则其他三条河的年均流量在统计上均无统计学意义的变化（置信度为95％）。年度洪峰流量显示，萨特卢吉和切纳布河流域的水量呈显着增加趋势，比斯河的水量呈明显下降趋势，拉维河的水量呈微不足道的趋势。尽管存在这些变化，但研究表明，在过去的三十年中，喜马拉雅西北部河流中的“高水灾”事件数量有所增加。

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