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首页> 外文期刊>Current Science: A Fortnightly Journal of Research >India's GHG emission scenarios: aligning development and stabilization paths.
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India's GHG emission scenarios: aligning development and stabilization paths.

机译：印度的温室气体排放情景：调整发展和稳定道路。

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This paper presents emission scenarios for India, constructed following the IPCC SRES framework. Analysis spans 21st century and is centered on energy sector CO2 emission. Scenario stories presume no explicit climate intervention; however differences in endogenous profiles of key drivers like technologies have profound indirect impact on greenhouse gas emissions. Across scenarios, aggregate emission trajectories vary significantly, thus proving that endogenous development choices are key determinants of emission paths. The paper therefore argues that development policies and actions, which alter profiles of key drivers of development should be essential elements of climate mitigation strategies. Scenario results show that India's per capita emission (CO2, methane and nitrous oxide) during the century would rank amongst the lowest. Stabilization at a 550 ppmv CO2 concentration would induce significant changes in energy and technology mix and economic losses in India. Stabilization burden would be lower in scenarios where underlying development paths are sustainable. The near-term energy choices, given their path dependence, could deliver sustained development and climate benefits. Aligning development and climate actions, therefore, is advisable and feasible. The regime instruments, the paper concludes, should aim to first support endogenous climate-friendly actions and then to induce climate centric actions in addition..
机译：本文介绍了根据IPCC SRES框架构建的印度排放情景。分析跨越21世纪，并集中在能源部门的CO2排放量上。情景故事假定没有明确的气候干预措施;然而，关键推动因素（如技术）的内源性差异对温室气体排放产生了间接的深远影响。在各种情况下，总的排放轨迹变化很大，因此证明了内生的发展选择是排放路径的关键决定因素。因此，本文认为，改变政策的主要驱动因素的发展政策和行动应该是缓解气候变化战略的基本要素。情景结果表明，本世纪印度的人均排放量（二氧化碳，甲烷和一氧化二氮）将是最低的。 550 ppmv CO2浓度的稳定化将导致印度能源和技术结构的重大变化以及经济损失。在基本的发展道路可持续的情况下，稳定负担将较低。考虑到路径的依赖性，近期的能源选择可以带来持续的发展和气候效益。因此，使发展和气候行动保持一致是明智和可行的。论文得出结论，该制度工具应旨在首先支持内生的气候友好行动，然后再引发以气候为中心的行动。

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