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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Geophysical Research, D. Atmospheres: JGR >A Holistic View of Water Management Impacts on Future Droughts: A Global Multimodel Analysis
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A Holistic View of Water Management Impacts on Future Droughts: A Global Multimodel Analysis

机译：对未来干旱的水管理影响的整体视图：全球多模型分析

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摘要

This study investigates the impacts of climate change and water management including agricultural irrigation, water withdrawal, and reservoir regulation on future meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts and their connections. The analysis is based on the simulations from four global hydrological models forced with the projections from five global climate models for historical period 1971–2000 and future period 2070–2099 with and without water management. Three unified drought indices, the standardized precipitation index, standardized soil moisture index, and standardized streamflow index, are adopted to represent the meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts, respectively. The analysis suggests that the climate-induced drought changes in all three types of droughts are enhanced but in different directions, while water-management-induced changes in agricultural and hydrological droughts are more consistent across space and simulations. Overall, water management activities reduce both the duration and intensity of agricultural droughts by roughly 1 order of magnitude, while increase those of hydrological droughts by up to 50%. Basin-scale analysis reveals that the higher is the intensity of irrigation, the larger will be the water-management-induced drought changes. Due to water management activities at some regions, the return periods of extreme agricultural droughts (in terms of severity) can change from 100 to 300 years or even longer, while typical 100-year hydrological droughts are likely to occur more often for the regions located in 25°N–40°N and 15°S–50°S. This study provides a global view on drought modification in the Anthropocene, which will help improve adaptation strategies for future droughts.
机译：本研究调查了气候变化和水资源管理在内的农业灌溉，措施和水库规定对未来气象，农业和水文干旱及其联系的影响。该分析基于四个全球水文模型的模拟，该模型从五个全球气候模型的预测到1971 - 2000年的五个全球气候模型，未来期间2070-2099带有，没有水管理。采用三个统一的干旱指数，标准化降水指数，标准化的土壤湿度指数和标准化的流流指数，分别代表气象，农业和水文干旱。该分析表明，各种三种干旱的气候诱导的干旱变化增强，但在不同的方向上，而水管诱导的农业和水文干旱变化跨空间和模拟更加一致。总体而言，水管理活动将农业干旱的持续时间和强度减少大约1级，同时将水文干旱的持续时间增加到50％。盆地规模分析表明，灌溉强度越高，水管理诱导的干旱变化越大。由于某些地区的水管理活动，极端农业干旱（严重程度）的返回期可以从100到300年或更长时间变化，而典型的100年水文干旱可能会更频繁地发生在所在的地区在25°N-40°N和15°S-50°S中。本研究为人类方面的干旱修改提供了全球性观点，这将有助于改善未来干旱的适应策略。

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    Wenhua Wan; Jianshi Zhao; Hong-Yi Li; Ashok Mishra; Mohamad Hejazi; Hui Lu; Yonas Demissie; Hao Wang;

  • 作者单位

    State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering Department of Hydraulic Engineering Tsinghua University Beijing China;

    State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering Department of Hydraulic Engineering Tsinghua University Beijing China;

    Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences and Institute on Ecosystems Montana State University Bozeman MT USA;

    Glenn Department of Civil Engineering Clemson University Clemson SC USA;

    Joint Global Change Research Institute Pacific Northwest National Laboratory College Park MD USA;

    Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth SystemModeling and Center for Earth SystemScience Tsinghua University Beijing China;

    Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Washington State University Pullman WA USA;

    State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering Department of Hydraulic Engineering Tsinghua University Beijing China;

  • 收录信息
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 地球物理学;
  • 关键词

    A Holistic; Water Management Impacts; Multimodel Analysis;

    机译：整体;水管理影响;多模型分析;

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