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Statistically-based projected changes in the frequency of flood events across the US Midwest

机译：基于统计的对美国中西部洪水事件频率的预测变化

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摘要

There is growing empirical evidence that many river basins across the U.S. Midwest have been experiencing an increase in the frequency of flood events over the most recent decades. Albeit these detected changes are important to understand what happened in our recent past, they cannot be directly extrapolated to obtain information about possible future changes in the frequency of flood events. Building on recent statistically-based attribution studies, we project seasonal changes in the frequency of flood events at 286 U.S. Geological Survey gauging stations across the U.S. Midwest using projections of precipitation, antecedent wetness conditions and temperature as drivers. The projections of the covariates are obtained from two datasets obtained by down-scaling global circulation models from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We focus on the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 and on four different flood thresholds (i.e., from more common to less frequent flood events). We find that the frequency of flood events during the 21st century increases during spring at most of the analyzed gauging stations, with larger changes in the Northern Great Plains and regardless of the flood threshold value. Our findings also point to a projected increasing number of flood events during the winter, especially in the stations in the southern and western part of the domain (Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Ohio, Indiana and Michigan). A marked change in the frequency of flood events is not projected for the summer and fall.
机译：越来越多的经验证据表明，许多河流在美国中西部的许多河流盆地都经历了最近几十年来洪水事件频率的增加。尽管这些检测到的更改对于了解我们最近发生的事情非常重要，但不能直接推断出来以获取有关洪水事件频率变化的信息。在近期统计基于统计的归因研究中，我们使用沉淀，前一种湿度条件和温度作为驱动器的预测，从美国地质调查测量站预测洪水事件频率的季节性变化。协变量的投影是从通过从第五耦合模型互通项目（CMIP5）的全局循环模型获得的两个数据集获得。我们专注于代表性浓度途径（RCP）8.5和四种不同的洪水阈值（即，从更常见的洪水事件中更常见）。我们发现，在大多数分析的测量站的春季期间，21世纪洪水事件的频率增加，北方大平原的变化较大，无论洪水阈值如何。我们的调查结果还指出了冬季的预计越来越多的洪水事件，特别是在南部和西部的站点的站点（爱荷华州，密苏里州，伊利诺伊州，俄亥俄州，印第安纳和密歇根州）。夏季和秋季未投降洪水事件频率的明显变化。

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