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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Hydrology >Spatial patterns of temporal changes in Canadian Prairie streamflow using an alternative trend assessment approach
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Spatial patterns of temporal changes in Canadian Prairie streamflow using an alternative trend assessment approach

机译：使用替代趋势评估方法的加拿大大草原流出的空间模式

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Changes in Canadian Prairie streamflow, particularly trends over time, have not been well studied but are particularly relevant for food and water security in this vast agricultural region. Streamflow records for this region are often unsuitable for conventional trend analysis; streams are often intermittent and have only a few days per year with flow, and stations operate only during the warm season, because of a lack of flow during the very cold Prairie winter. This study takes an alternative approach; streamflow data for the period from March to October for individual years between 1910 and 2015 from 169 hydrometric stations from the Prairie and adjacent areas in Canada were converted to annual cumulative runoff series. These 5895 individual station-years were then clustered based upon their shape, using dynamic time warping. Three clusters of cumulative annual runoff were found; the first and most common type has infrequent days with flow and low total annual runoff [0-50 mm], the second has more days with flow and slightly greater runoff [48-175 mm], and the least common third type has the fewest days without flow, includes perennial streams, and has much greater annual runoff [ > 173 mm]. For each hydrometric station a time series of annual cluster memberships was created. Trends in the fractions of cluster types were determined using logistic regression, with spatial groupings of these time series over five-year periods. Trends in the fractions of types within an ecoregion indicate spatially consistent and organized changes in the pattern of runoff over the region. In the western Canadian Prairies, particularly in the Mixed Grassland and Cypress Upland ecoregions, drying is occurring, as indicated by the increased frequency of the dry type. In the northern and eastern Canadian Prairies, conditions are shifting to greater runoffs, particularly in the Aspen Parkland, where the wet types are increasing in frequency.
机译：加拿大大草原流出的变化，特别是随着时间的推移，尤其是趋势，尚未得到很好的研究，但在这座庞大的农业区域的食物和水安全特别相关。该区域的流流记录通常不适合常规趋势分析;溪流经常间歇性，每年只有几天，车站只在温暖季节运作，因为在非常冷的大草原冬季缺乏流动。本研究采取替代方法; 1910年至2015年3月至10月的流出数据从1910年至2015年间，从加拿大大草原和邻近地区的169个液压车站转换为年度累积径流系列。使用动态时间翘曲，这5895个单独的站点是基于它们的形状聚集。发现了三个累积年度径流的集群;第一个也是最常见的类型具有流量和低总年径流的流量和较低的日子[0-50 mm]，第二个流量有更多的流程，略大径流[48-175 mm]，最不常见的第三种类型最少没有流动的日子包括多年生溪流，并具有更大的年度径流[> 173 mm]。对于每个virtorical站，创建了一系列年度集群成员资格。使用Logistic回归确定集群类型分数的趋势，这些时间序列的空间分组超过五年。 eCOREGION中类型的级分的趋势表示该区域径流模式的空间一致和有组织的变化。在西加拿大大草原中，特别是在混合草地和柏膨胀的普通eCoregions中，干燥是发生的，如干式频率增加所示。在北部和东部加拿大大草原上，条件正在转移到更大的径流，特别是在阿斯彭公园，潮湿类型在频率上增加。

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