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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Hydrology >Using an improved SWAT model to simulate hydrological responses to land use change: A case study of a catchment in tropical Australia
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Using an improved SWAT model to simulate hydrological responses to land use change: A case study of a catchment in tropical Australia

机译：利用改进的SWAT模型来模拟土地利用变化的水文反应 - 以热带澳大利亚集水区的案例研究

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摘要

Land use change is one of the dominant driving factors of watershed hydrological change. Thus, hydrological responses to land use changes require detailed assessments to ensure sustainable management of both water resources and natural ecosystems. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model has been widely used to simulate the impacts of land use change on water balance. However, the original SWAT model has poor performance in estimating the leaf area index (LAI) of different vegetation types for tropical areas. The objective of this study was to simulate the impact of different land use change scenarios (deforestation, afforestation and urbanization) on the water balance, using an improved SWAT model with vegetation growth calibrated from MODIS LAI data. The North Johnstone River catchment in wet tropical eastern Australia was selected as the case study area. Results showed that the modified SWAT model was able to reproduce smoothed MODIS LAI with NSE >= 0.59 (NSE < 0 for default SWAT), R-2 >= 0.70 (R-2 <= 0.66 for default SWAT), and vertical bar PBIAS vertical bar <= 2.5% (vertical bar PBIAS vertical bar >= 42% for default SWAT), and to predict monthly streamflow well with NSE >= 0.92 (NSE >= 0.90 for default SWAT), R-2 >= 0.94 (R-2 >= 0.90 for default SWAT). It is noted that SWAT-T had vertical bar PBIAS vertical bar <= 10% while vertical bar PBIAS vertical bar <= 5% for default SWAT. Land use change impacted all hydrological variables, with the impact on surface runoff being the most notable at yearly scale (8.9%, 5.7%, - 9.5% and 15.9% for scenario 1, 2, 3 and 4, respectively). Absolute changes of surface runoff under land use change scenarios differed across months, with the most notable absolute change occurring during the wet season (December to May) (1.2 similar to 6.6 mm, 1.0 similar to 3.5 mm, - 7.3 similar to -1.1 mm and 3.0 similar to 9.0 mm for scenario 1, 2, 3 and 4, respectively). Urbanization increased surface runoff (5.7% and 15.9% for scenario 2 and 4, respectively) and decreased lateral runoff (- 0.7% and - 1.3%) and groundwater (-0.9% and - 3.5%), but produced no clear change in total runoff (0.2% and 0.2%), actual evapotranspiration (- 0.3% and - 0.3%), and soil water (0.5% and 0.7%) at the annual time scale. Furthermore, afforestation could decrease surface runoff (- 9.5% for scenario 3) and soil water (- 2.0%), increase evapotranspiration (1.7%), and lead to slight changes (absolute values <= 0.8%) in other hydrological variables at the annual time scale. A strong positive correlation (r >= 0.94) was observed between annual rainfall and total runoff for forest-evergreen, range-grasses, and urban land use. Forest-evergreen generally produced less total runoff than range-grasses and urban land use under conditions of the same rainfall, terrain slope, and soil texture. In addition, urban land use generally produced more surface runoff and less lateral runoff and groundwater than forest-evergreen and range-grasses under the same conditions. These results contribute important information for development of effective adaptation strategies and future policy plans for sustainable water management in tropical eastern Australia.
机译：土地利用变化是流域水文变化的主导驾驶因素之一。因此，对土地使用变化的水文反应需要详细的评估，以确保水资源和自然生态系统的可持续管理。土壤和水评估工具（SWAT）模型已被广泛用于模拟土地利用变化对水平的影响。然而，原始SWAT模型在估计热带地区不同植被类型的叶面积指数（LAI）具有差的性能。本研究的目的是模拟不同土地利用变化场景（砍伐森林，造林和城市化）对水平衡的影响，利用改进的SWAT模型从Modis Lai数据校准的植被生长。南荷山石河集水区被选为澳大利亚湿热带东澳大利亚被选中作为案例研究区。结果表明，修改的SWAT模型能够使用NSE> = 0.59（默认SWAT），R-2> = 0.70（R-2 <= 0.66的NSE> = 0.59（NSE <0）和垂直条PBIA（R-2 <= 0.66）重现平滑的Modis Lai，以及垂直条PBIA垂直条<= 2.5％（垂直条PBIAS垂直栏> =默认SWAT的42％），并使用NSE> = 0.92（默认SWAT的NSE> = 0.90），R-2> = 0.94（r默认SWAT的-2> = 0.90）。应注意，SWAT-T具有垂直条PBIAS垂直条<= 10％，而垂直条PBIAS垂直条<= 5％用于默认的SWAT。土地利用变化影响了所有水文变量，对地表径流的影响是每年尺度最显着的（8.9％，5.7％，分别为5.5％和15.9％，分别为5.5％和15.9％）。在土地利用变化方案下的表面径流的绝对变化不同的几个月不同，在潮湿的季节（12月至5月）期间发生最值得注意的绝对变化（1.2类似于6.6毫米，1.0类似于3.5 mm， - 7.3类似于-1.1 mm 3.0类似于9.0 mm，分别为9.0 mm，分别为9.0 mm，分别为9.0 mm）。城市化程度增加（分别为5.7％和15.9％），减少横向径流（ - 0.7％和-1.3％）和地下水（-0.9％和-3.5％），但总共没有明确变化径流（0.2％和0.2％），实际蒸散（ - 0.3％〜0.3％），每年尺度的土壤水（0.5％和0.7％）。此外，造林可以减少表面径流（方案3的9.5％）和土壤水（ - 2.0％），增加蒸散蒸腾（1.7％），并导致其他水文变量中的略微变化（绝对值<= 0.8％）年度规模。在年降雨量和森林 - 常青树，范围草和城市土地利用之间的降雨和全面径流之间观察到强大的正相关（R> = 0.94）。森林 - 常青树通常生产的总径流比在同一降雨，地形斜坡和土壤质地的条件下的范围草和城市土地。此外，城市土地使用通常在相同条件下产生比森林 - 常绿和射程草更少的表面径流和较少的横向径流和地下水。这些结果为发展澳大利亚热带东部的可持续水资源管理有效适应策略和未来政策计划提供了重要信息。

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