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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Hydrology >Potential impacts of land use/cover and climate changes on ecologically relevant flows
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Potential impacts of land use/cover and climate changes on ecologically relevant flows

机译：土地使用/覆盖和气候变化对生态相关流动的潜在影响

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This study explored the sensitivity of ecologically relevant flows to individual and combined impacts of climate and land use/cover (LULC) change as well as to their synergistic impacts (combined effect minus sum of individual effects) in a rapidly urbanizing watershed in Alabama, USA. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was first calibrated (1988-1993) and validated (2008-2013) at daily time scale for streamflow. Then, bias-corrected and downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate data from 2035 to 2060 with eleven climate models under two different representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) were fed into SWAT to quantify the effects of future climate. Watershed LULC change was represented in SWAT via a future projected dataset developed by the United States Geological Survey (USGS). Past, present, and future potential streamflow responses to LULC and climate changes were analyzed for various ecologically relevant flow parameters. A total of 38 key flow parameters known to have significant impacts on aquatic flora and fauna were examined including high, low, and median flows, as well as flashiness. Increased summer temperature and decreased fall precipitation are expected in the study region accompanied by rapid urbanization. Climate change is expected to increase maximum monthly streamflows, especially in June-September potentially altering habitat availability for aquatic organisms. When climate change was combined with LULC change, more frequent drought and flood events are expected, which may negatively affect many fish species. Significant shifts in the timing of annual extreme streamflow conditions were also predicted in the future, which may adversely impact the life cycle of various aquatic species.
机译：本研究探讨了生态相关流量与气候和土地利用/封面（LULC）变化的个人和综合影响以及其在美国阿拉巴马州迅速城市化流域中的协同影响（综合效应减去单位效应的效应）的敏感性。土壤和水评估工具（SWAT）首次校准（1988-1993）并在日常时间尺度下验证（2008-2013）以进行流流。然后，偏差和较次耦合的耦合模型相互熟悉的项目阶段5（CMIP5）从2035到2060的气候数据，其中11种不同代表浓度途径（RCP 2.6和RCP 8.5）的11个气候模型被送入SWAT，以量化未来气候的影响。流域LULC变革通过美国地质调查（USGS）开发的未来预计的数据集团在SWAT中代表。针对各种生态相关的流量参数分析了对Lulc和气候变化的过去，存在和未来的潜在流响应。已知有38个关键流量参数对水生植物和动物群进行重大影响，包括高，低，中位数，以及闪光。在迅速城市化的研究区，预计夏季温度增加和降水下降。预计气候变化将增加每月最大流动流出，特别是6月至9月，可能会改变水生生物的栖息地可用性。当气候变化与LULC变化相结合时，预计会频繁干旱和洪水事件可能会对许多鱼类产生负面影响。未来也预测了年度极端流流量条件的时间的重大转变，这可能会对各种水生物种的生命周期产生不利影响。

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