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A framework for assessing the vulnerability of species to climate change: a case study of the Australian elapid snakes

机译：评估物种对气候变化的脆弱性的框架：以澳大利亚雄性蛇为例

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Frameworks that provide a system for assessing species according to their vulnerability to climate change can offer considerable guidance to conservation managers who need to allocate limited resources among a large number of taxa. To date, climate change vulnerability assessments have largely been based on projected changes in range size derived from the output of species distribution models (SDMs). A criticism of risk assessments based solely on these models is that information on species ecological and life history traits is lacking. Accordingly, we developed a points-based framework for assessing species vulnerability to climate change that considered species traits together with the projections of SDMs. Applying this method to the Australian elapid snakes (family Elapidae), we determined which species may be particularly susceptible in the future and assessed broad-scale biogeographic patterns in species vulnerability. By offering a more comprehensive and rigorous method for assessing vulnerability than those based solely on SDMs, this framework provides greater justification for resource allocation, and can help guide decisions regarding the most appropriate adaptation strategies.
机译：提供根据物种对气候变化的脆弱性评估物种的系统的框架可以为需要在大量生物分类中分配有限资源的保护管理者提供大量指导。迄今为止，气候变化脆弱性评估主要基于物种分布模型（SDM）的输出所预测的范围大小变化。仅仅基于这些模型的对风险评估的批评是，缺乏有关物种生态和生活史特征的信息。因此，我们开发了一个基于点的框架来评估物种对气候变化的脆弱性，该框架考虑了物种特征以及SDM的预测。将这种方法应用于澳大利亚的蛇形蛇科（Elapidae），我们确定了哪些物种将来可能特别易感，并评估了物种脆弱性的大规模生物地理模式。通过提供比仅基于SDM的方法更全面，更严格的评估漏洞的方法，此框架为资源分配提供了更大的依据，并且可以帮助指导有关最合适的适应策略的决策。

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