No-one would have imagined wheat at over 100 pound a tonne, this time last year. So what to do next year? Julian Gairdner takes a look at some key market pointers for 2004. World wheat stocks are critically low. Production forecasts from the Australian harvest are being downsized again by a further 2m tonnes. Wheat production in Argentina is expected to be lower than first thought. And the 2003 US maize harvest -- a key factor in setting wheat prices -- is now considered to be smaller than anticipated. All points to soaring prices next year? Not necessarily. According to the USDA figures, despite the smaller US maize crop, exports are up on last season at 47.6m tonnes. In the short-term, that means non-EU maize is competitive against European wheat, putting a potential ceiling on EU cereal prices.
展开▼
