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Effect of Escalation on Large Construction Programs

机译：升级对大型建设项目的影响

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During the past 20 years, much effort has been made to quantify and control cost and schedule uncertainties in large infrastructure projects. The goal is not to eliminate the uncertainties but, how to quantify them in order to have an established contingency budget that is as close as possible to what the project will need. This is more important when a planner is confronted with a major program, i.e., a portfolio of construction projects. In this paper, we introduce a technique in modeling cost, schedule, and escalation uncertainties, using a Monte Carlo simulation approach. The effect of these uncertainties on a large infrastructure program is illustrated. In these multi-year programs, the effect of escalation becomes extremely important. In the proposed approach, the total cost variance is decomposed into variances caused by cost risk factors, duration, and escalation rate variations. This paper could be used as a practical guideline for agencies and planners challenged with such projects to establish the contingency budget to prevent shortfall of funds.
机译：在过去的20年中，为量化和控制大型基础设施项目中的成本和计划不确定性付出了很多努力。目的不是消除不确定性，而是如何量化不确定性，以使已建立的应急预算尽可能接近项目的需求。当计划者面临重大计划（即建设项目组合）时，这一点尤为重要。在本文中，我们介绍了一种使用蒙特卡洛模拟方法对成本，进度和升级不确定性进行建模的技术。说明了这些不确定性对大型基础设施计划的影响。在这些多年计划中，升级的影响变得极为重要。在提出的方法中，总成本差异被分解为由成本风险因素，工期和提升率差异引起的差异。本文可作为受此类项目挑战的机构和规划人员制定应急预算以防止资金短缺的实用指南。

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