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首页> 外文期刊>AACE International Transactions >Conducting Risk Assessments Using a Combined Cost and Schedule Model
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Conducting Risk Assessments Using a Combined Cost and Schedule Model

机译：使用成本和进度计划组合模型进行风险评估

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摘要

Risk management is becoming increasingly important in the world of project management. Traditional risk management focuses primarily on evaluating and managing cost risk; while schedule risk is seldom or only marginally addressed. Schedule delays increase project carrying costs and in some cases introduce contract penalties and reduced project return on investment. In addition, there are many projects that are schedule driven rather than cost driven, such as having a major project complete in time for a scheduled event. Since both cost and schedule risk are important and often correlated, the ability to conduct both assessments concurrently using one model is ideal. This paper presents a hypothetical case study that is used to illustrate recommended modeling practices and to demonstrate the application and value of a combined cost and schedule risk assessment (CSRA) model. This case study involves a combined demolition/remediation project to prepare an industrial property for mixed use redevelopment. The CSRA model includes the use of probabilistic modeling to address risk events and uncertainties associated with project costs, materials, and durations.
机译：在项目管理领域，风险管理变得越来越重要。传统的风险管理主要侧重于评估和管理成本风险。而进度风险很少或只有很少解决。进度延误会增加项目的运营成本，在某些情况下还会带来合同惩罚，并降低项目的投资回报率。此外，有许多项目是按计划而不是成本来驱动的，例如在计划的事件中及时完成一个大型项目。由于成本和进度风险都很重要且经常相互关联，因此理想的是使用一种模型同时进行两种评估的能力。本文提供了一个假设的案例研究，该案例研究用于说明推荐的建模实践，并演示成本和进度风险评估（CSRA）组合模型的应用和价值。该案例研究涉及一个组合的拆除/修复项目，以准备用于混合用途再开发的工业物业。 CSRA模型包括使用概率模型来解决与项目成本，材料和工期相关的风险事件和不确定性。

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