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Alternate Methods for Integrated Cost & Schedule Contingency Estimating

机译：综合成本和进度计划应急估算的替代方法

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摘要

Schedule contingency estimating is not widely used in project planning. Even less commonly used are methods that integrate cost and schedule contingency estimating. Only one integrated method is well covered in the literature; i.e., range simulation applied to a cost-loaded CPM schedule. However, this method, as typically practiced, is poorly aligned with some of AACE International's established principles for good contingency estimating practice. This paper presents the most commonly used Critical Path Method (CPM) model-based methods, as well as an alternate hybrid parametric model/expected-value method that does not rely on the CPM model and is designed to better align with principles of good contingency estimating practice while being practical to use on all projects. Pros and cons of the alternate methods are discussed. The paper also explains why cost and schedule risk analysis must be done at the same time regardless of the contingency estimating method used.
机译：进度意外事件估计未在项目计划中广泛使用。集成成本和计划应变估算的方法甚至更不常用。文献中仅涵盖了一种集成方法。即将范围模拟应用于费用较高的CPM计划。但是，通常采用的这种方法与AACE International制定的某些应急应变良好实践的既定原则不太一致。本文介绍了最常用的基于关键路径方法（CPM）模型的方法，以及不依赖于CPM模型并且旨在更好地与偶然性原则保持一致的备用混合参数模型/期望值方法估算实践，同时在所有项目中都可以实际使用。讨论了替代方法的优缺点。本文还解释了为何无论采用哪种应急评估方法，都必须同时进行成本和进度风险分析。

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