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首页> 外文期刊>BJOG: an international journal of obstetrics and gynaecology >External validation of a simple risk score based on the ASPRE trial algorithm for preterm pre-eclampsia considering maternal characteristics in nulliparous pregnant women: a multicentre retrospective cohort study
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External validation of a simple risk score based on the ASPRE trial algorithm for preterm pre-eclampsia considering maternal characteristics in nulliparous pregnant women: a multicentre retrospective cohort study

机译：考虑孕产妇特征的基于原因试验算法的基于ASPre试验算法的简单风险分数的外部验证：多期一位回顾队列研究

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Objective To validate the performance of a first-trimester simple risk score based on the ASPRE trial algorithm for pre-eclampsia. Design Multicentre retrospective cohort analysis. Setting Four Italian hospitals. Population Unselected nulliparous women at 11-13 weeks of gestation from January 2014 through to January 2018. Methods Model performance was evaluated based on discrimination and calibration. Main outcome measures Delivery before 37 weeks of gestation with a diagnosis of pre-eclampsia. Results Based on 73 preterm pre-eclampsia cases and 7546 controls (including 101 cases of late pre-eclampsia), the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve was 0.659 (95% CI 0.579-0.726). The sensitivity was 32.9% (95% CI 22.1-43.7) at a false-positive rate of 8.8%. The positive likelihood ratio was 3.74 (95% CI 2.67-5.23), the positive predictive value was 3.49% (95% CI 2.12-4.86%) and the negative predictive value was 99.3% (95% CI 99.1-99.5%). The sensitivity and positive likelihood ratio were approximately 40% lower than in the original study. The calibration analysis showed a good agreement between observed and expected risks (P = 0.037). Comparison with the Fetal Medicine Foundation (FMF) algorithm yielded a difference in the area under the curve of 0.084 (P = 0.007). Conclusions In our Italian population, the simple risk score had a lower performance than expected for the prediction of preterm pre-eclampsia in nulliparous women. The FMF algorithm applied to the same data set resulted in a better prediction. Tweetable abstract Simple risk score predicts preterm pre-eclampsia in Italy.
机译：目的验证基于前普利坦斯普雷普斯的ASPre试验算法的初学者简单风险分数的性能。设计多中心回顾队列队列分析。设置四家意大利医院。从2014年1月到2018年1月到2018年1月的妊娠11-13周的人口未选择的无污染妇女。方法基于歧视和校准评估模型性能。主要观念措施在妊娠37周之前递送，诊断出预先普利坦斯前。结果基于73早产预痫病例和7546个对照（包括101例晚期预先预浸型症），接收器操作特性曲线下的面积为0.659（95％CI 0.579-0.726）。敏感性为32.9％（95％CI 22.1-43.7），假阳性率为8.8％。阳性似然比为3.74（95％CI 2.67-5.23），阳性预测值为3.49％（95％CI 2.12-4.86％），负预测值为99.3％（95％CI 99.1-99.5％）。敏感性和阳性似然比大约低于原始研究的40％。校准分析显示观察到和预期风险之间的良好一致性（P = 0.037）。与胎儿药物基础（FMF）算法的比较产生了0.084曲线下面积的差异（P = 0.007）。在我们意大利人口中，简单的风险评分的性能低于预期的预期，对于预测预期的早产儿妇女。应用于相同数据集的FMF算法导致更好的预测。 Twelable摘要简单风险分数预测意大利早产预先普查山脉。

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