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首页> 外文期刊>Acta oeconomica et informatica >INTERNATIONAL SYNCHRONISATION OF THE PORK CYCLE
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INTERNATIONAL SYNCHRONISATION OF THE PORK CYCLE

机译：猪肉循环的国际同步

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摘要

The development of pork prices has been analysed since the 1920s. Well known economic concepts such as Hanau's pork cycle or Ezekiel's cobweb theorem are based on the empirical analysis of pork markets. We analyze whether pork price developments in different countries have become more synchronised over time. In a first stage of our analysis, annual pork price data collected by the FAO reveals much heterogeneity of pork price developments across countries. However, for some groups of countries the observed price patterns are very similar or even identical. This is especially the case for neighbouring countries with integrated pork markets, such as the members of the European Union (EU). We then compare pork price developments in Germany and the USA based on 36 years of monthly producer prices for slaughter pigs. Since the middle of the 1990s cyclical pork price movements in the USA and Germany have become increasingly synchronous. We attribute this to two developments: the fact that the USA has become a large net exporter of pork over this period, and policy reform in the EU that has strengthened the link between international and EU feed prices.
机译：自1920年代以来就对猪肉价格的发展进行了分析。诸如哈瑙（Hanau）的猪肉周期或以西结（Ezekiel）的蜘蛛网定理等著名的经济概念都基于对猪肉市场的实证分析。我们分析了不同国家猪肉价格的发展是否随着时间的推移变得更加同步。在我们分析的第一阶段，粮农组织收集的年度猪肉价格数据揭示了各国猪肉价格发展的异质性。但是，对于某些国家组，观察到的价格模式非常相似甚至相同。对于猪肉市场一体化的邻国，例如欧盟（EU）成员国，尤其如此。然后，我们根据屠宰猪36个月的月度生产者价格比较德国和美国的猪肉价格变化。自1990年代中期以来，美国和德国的周期性猪肉价格走势已经越来越同步。我们将其归因于两个方面的发展：在此期间，美国已成为猪肉净出口大国，而欧盟的政策改革则加强了国际和欧盟饲料价格之间的联系。

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