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A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Wylfa Newydd, a new nuclear site in the United Kingdom

机译:Wylfa Newydd的概率地震危害评估,英国新核现场

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This study presents the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for a nuclear site in the UK, Wylfa Newydd. The PSHA was defined at a bedrock horizon with shear wave velocity of 3000 m/s and developed to capture the centre, body and range of the technical defensible interpretations. Although not a formal SSHAC (Senior Seismic Hazard Assessment Committee) process, the PSHA met all the SSHAC Level 2 requirements with some aspects of SSHAC Level 3 and 4. Two base source models were developed: SM1 mainly driven by the observed seismicity and SM2 guided by the geology and tectonics. To capture epistemic uncertainty, variations of boundaries were included in the logic tree, resulting in five different models. Based on the selection discussed by Villani et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 109(4):1378-1400, 2019), four empirical models adjusted to the hard rock site conditions of Wylfa Newydd and a site-specific stochastic GMPE, developed within this project, were adopted in the logic tree for the median prediction. For all GMPEs a logic tree for the single-station sigma model was adopted. The PSHA resulted in a mean peak ground acceleration value for annual probability of exceedance of 10(-4) of 0.192 g. The comparison of the mean 10(-4) uniform hazard spectrum with the traditional piecewise linear design spectrum showed significant conservatism up to 20 Hz and underestimation at higher frequencies. To overcome this limitation, a performance-based design spectrum, following US practice (ASCE/SEI 43-05), was therefore recommended; this marks a significant difference to the traditional UK design practice.
机译:本研究提出了英国核现场的概率地震危害评估(PSHA)Wylfa Newydd。 PSHA在基岩地平线上定义,剪切波速为3000米/秒,并开发用于捕获技术可逆解释的中心,身体和范围。虽然不是正式的SSHAC(高级地震危险委员会)进程,但PSHA符合SSHAC 3和4的某些方面符合SSHAC 2级要求。开发了两个基本源模型:SM1主要由观察到的地震性和SM2引导通过地质和构造。为了捕获认知不确定性,逻辑树中包含边界的变化,导致五种不同的模型。基于Villani等人讨论的选择。 (公牛Seismol Soc AM 109(4):1378-1400,2019),调整到Wylfa Newydd的硬摇滚现场条件的四个经验模型以及该项目中开发的位点特定的随机GMPE,是在逻辑树中采用的中位数预测。对于所有GMPES,采用了单站Sigma模型的逻辑树。 PSHA导致平均峰接地加速值,用于超过10(-4)的0.192g。平均10(-4)均匀危险谱的比较与传统的分段线性设计谱显示出高达20 Hz的显着保守主义,并且在较高频率下低估低估。为了克服这种限制,因此建议使用基于性能的设计谱,遵循美国练习(ASCE / SEI 43-05);这标志着传统英国设计实践的显着差异。

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