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首页> 外文期刊>Bulletin of earthquake engineering >Comparison of PSH results with historical macroseismic observations at different scales. Part 1: methodology
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Comparison of PSH results with historical macroseismic observations at different scales. Part 1: methodology

机译：PSH结果与不同尺度的历史巨大观测的比较。 第1部分：方法论

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摘要

The need for verifying and/or validating the results of probabilistic seismic hazard studies has become evident, despite the absence of generally accepted methods for judging such results. This paper proposes a methodology for comparing the results of PSH with historical macroseismic observations, at different scale levels. The selected metric of the comparison is the mean damage, i.e. the average annually expected damage. Hence, a procedure for converting macroseismic observations and PGA levels, for which PSH estimates are provided, into mean damage values is first presented. The procedure is based on the macroseismic method for converting intensities into mean damage values, whereas it takes advantage of fragility curves (representative of the seismic vulnerability of the building stock at the time of historical observations) to transform the rates of occurrence of PGA values into the equivalent quantity in terms of mean damage. A methodology for site-specific comparison is first outlined. To overcome some of the limitations of the comparison at a single site, two procedures for aggregating several sites by sampling in space are then presented, with the aim of enlarging the available macroseismic dataset. Finally, a procedure for the comparison at the regional level is discussed. Applications of the proposed methodologies will be discussed in a companion paper (Rosti and Rota in Bull Earthq Eng, 2017).
机译：尽管没有普遍接受的方法来判断此类结果，但仍然需要验证和/或验证概率地震危害研究结果的需求。本文提出了一种在不同规模水平下将PSH结果与历史巨大观测结果进行比较的方法。比较的选定度量是平均损伤，即每年预期的平均损坏。因此，首先呈现用于转换宏观观测和PGA水平的过程，以将PSH估计变成平均损伤值。该过程基于用于将强度转化为平均损伤值的宏观操方法，而它利用脆弱曲线（代表历史观察时建筑物的地震脆弱性）以将PGA值的发生率转换为平均损伤方面的等价。首先概述了特定于站点特定比较的方法。为了克服单个站点的比较的一些局限性，然后呈现通过在空间中进行采样聚合若干站点的两个程序，目的是放大可用的宏观主义数据集。最后，讨论了区域一级比较的程序。拟议方法的应用将在伴侣纸上讨论（Rosti和Rota在公牛地球仪，2017年）。

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