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首页> 外文期刊>Bulletin of earthquake engineering >The 1531 earthquake revisited: loss estimation in a historical perspective
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The 1531 earthquake revisited: loss estimation in a historical perspective

机译：1531地震重新审议：历史视角下的损失估计

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摘要

In this research, the 1531 earthquake is revisited. This was one of the major earthquakes that affected Portugal and, specifically, Lisbon. According to coeval sources, between 1000 and 30,000 casualties were caused in Lisbon by this tremor. This range shows the great uncertainty regarding the real effects of this Event. Analyzing the real dimension of this earthquake is the goal of this research. For that purpose, this work proposes a methodology for analyzing the destruction of historical towns. The social consequences of the quake have also been investigated. To do so, a seismic risk simulator, called SIRCO, has been used. A thorough analysis of Lisbon, prior to 1531, has been done. Firstly, the geological characterization has been included. Secondly, the building stock has been reconstructed and characterized. Next, the buildings macroseismic vulnerability index and the buildings vulnerability curves have been calculated. Finally, all this information has been gathered together in a geographical information system. The results show that the most affected areas were those located in the lower part of the city and next to the Tagus River. The simulation carried out for the 1531 Earthquake estimates 46 immediate deaths and between 158 and 397 deaths during the first week after the earthquake. The estimated total of casualties is 1000. A description of the physical and sociological losses caused by this natural event is made.
机译：在这项研究中，重新审视了1531次地震。这是影响葡萄牙的主要地震之一，并具体地，里斯本。根据赛道来源，这次震颤的里斯本造成了1000至30,000人伤亡。该范围显示了关于这一事件的实际效果的巨大不确定性。分析这场地震的实际维度是这项研究的目标。为此目的，这项工作提出了一种分析历史城镇毁灭的方法。也已经调查了地震的社会后果。为此，已经使用了称为SIRCO的地震风险模拟器。在1531年之前对里斯本进行了彻底的分析。首先，已经包括地质特征。其次，建筑物库存已经重建和特征。接下来，已经计算了建筑物宏观漏洞指数和建筑物漏洞曲线。最后，所有这些信息都在地理信息系统中聚集在一起。结果表明，最受影响的地区是位于城市下部，旁边的塔斯河旁边的地区。对1531地震进行的模拟在地震后的第一周估计46个即时死亡和158至397人死亡。估计的伤亡人数为1000.对这种自然事件引起的身体和社会学损失的描述。

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