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The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Germany-version 2016, considering the range of epistemic uncertainties and aleatory variability

机译：考虑到认知不确定性和梯级可变性范围，德国 - 版本2016年概率地震危害评估

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The basic seismic load parameters for the upcoming national design regulation for DIN EN 1998-1/NA result from the reassessment of the seismic hazard supported by the German Institution for Civil Engineering (DIBt). This 2016 version of the national seismic hazard assessment for Germany is based on a comprehensive involvement of all accessible uncertainties in models and parameters and includes the provision of a rational framework for integrating ranges of epistemic uncertainties and aleatory variabilities in a comprehensive and transparent way. The developed seismic hazard model incorporates significant improvements over previous versions. It is based on updated and extended databases, it includes robust methods to evolve sets of models representing epistemic uncertainties, and a selection of the latest generation of ground motion prediction equations. The new earthquake model is presented here, which consists of a logic tree with 4040 end branches and essential innovations employed for a realistic approach. The output specifications were designed according to the user oriented needs as suggested by two review teams supervising the entire project. Seismic load parameters, for rock conditions of nu(S30) = 800 m/s, are calculated for three hazard levels (10, 5 and 2% probability of occurrence or exceedance within 50 years) and delivered in the form of uniform hazard spectra, within the spectral period range 0.02-3 s, and seismic hazard maps for peak ground acceleration, spectral response accelerations and for macroseismic intensities. Results are supplied as the mean, the median and the 84th percentile. A broad analysis of resulting uncertainties of calculated seismic load parameters is included. The stability of the hazard maps with respect to previous versions and the cross-border comparison is emphasized.
机译：根据德国土木工程机构（DIBT）支持即将到来的DIN EN 1998-1 / NA国家设计规例的基本地震载荷参数。本2016年版本德国国家地震危害评估是基于模型和参数中所有可访问的不确定性的全面参与，并包括以全面和透明的方式为全面的认识性不确定性和梯级可变性提供合理框架。开发的地震危险模型包括对先前版本的显着改进。它基于更新和扩展的数据库，它包括扩建代表认知不确定性的模型的鲁棒方法，以及选择最新一代的地面运动预测方程。这里介绍了新的地震模型，其中包括具有4040个终端的逻辑树和用于现实方法的基本创新。由于两个审查团队监督整个项目的建议，根据用户的需求设计了输出规格。用于Nu的岩石条件的地震载荷参数（S30）= 800米/秒，计算三个危险水平（在50年内发生或超过或超越的10％），以均匀危害光谱的形式提供，在光谱周期范围内0.02-3秒，以及用于峰接地加速度，光谱响应加速和宏观激力的地震危险地图。结果为平均值，中位数和第84百分位数。包括对所得到的计算地震荷载参数的产生不确定性的广泛分析。强调了危险地图关于先前版本和跨境比较的稳定性。

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