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A probabilistic seismic hazard map for the metropolitan France

机译:法国大都会的概率地震危险地图

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This paper presents the development of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) model to compute seismic hazard maps for the French territory taking into account 15 years of research and development in the area. Since 2002, when the first probabilistic hazard map was computed for France, many new data became available leading to new studies and experience gained. This 2017 PSHA version for France incorporates significant improvements over previous version. In particular, the recent SIGMA project 2010-2016 produced a number of outputs which are used in the present analysis: a homogenized earthquake catalogue in moment magnitude (M-w), a Bayesian methodology to compute distributions of maximum magnitudes, ground motion prediction equations specifically developed for the French territory, new seismotectonic analysis conducted based on geological, structural, geophysical, neotectonic and seismological data. Preliminary comparison of median PGA values at 475 years return period with results obtained independently for neighboring countries (Germany, Switzerland, and Italy) reveals a fair agreement. Comparison with the 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM13, SHARE project) and the model for France developed in 2002 indicates that 2017 PSHA version leads to lower hazard.
机译:本文介绍了概率地震危害分析(PSHA)模型的发展,以计算法国领土的地震危险地图,考虑到该地区的15年的研发。自2002年以来,当第一个概率危险地图为法国计算时,许多新数据都可以导致新的研究和经验获得。本2017年法国PSHA版本与以前版本的重大改进含有显着的改进。特别地,最近的Sigma项目2010-2016产生了许多在本分析中使用的输出:在瞬间幅度(MW)中的均质地震目录,贝叶斯方法,以计算最大幅度的分布,具体开发的地面运动预测方程对于法国领土,基于地质,结构,地球物理,新出地区和地震数据进行的新的地震局部分析。 475年返回期间PGA值的初步比较与邻国(德国,瑞士和意大利独立获得的结果,揭示了一项公平的协议。与2013年欧洲地震危险模型(ESHM13,股票项目)和2002年开发的法国模型的比较表明2017年PSHA版本导致危险降低。

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