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A general equilibrium analysis of FDI growth in Chinese services sectors

机译:中国服务部门FDI增长的一般均衡分析

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This paper analyzes one of the features of the Chinese economic transition, namely, the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) accruing to advanced services sectors. To that aim we use an innovative computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that includes, in a multi-regional setting, foreign multinationals operating in monopolistic competition. The model is based on data that split the world economy in 2016 into 11 regions (China - US - EU27 - Great Britain-other advanced economies - India - Japan - South East Asia - Latin America - Middle East - Sub Saharan Africa) and 21 sectors. We provide quantitative evidence on several characteristics of the 21 sectors in China, EU27 and the US, as well as other data on the role of China in the global stage, including its evolution since 2004. Several scenarios focusing on the increase of FDI inflows in services, because of the reduction of its FDI barriers, are simulated deriving short and long run results. We find that the impact of more foreign multinationals in services is positive for China but smaller than the one that had been obtained in other previous studies on FDI in manufactures. This is due to the still limited role of services in the Chinese economy and to a crowding out effect that domestic firms experience after the entry of foreign multinationals. On the whole the impact is, however, slightly positive for China, because manufactures benefit from the entry of foreign services multinationals. The rest of regions are unaffected or benefit very slightly, due to the fact that services production is less export oriented and more devoted to private consumption than in the case of manufactures. However, their manufacturing sectors are slightly harmed by the stronger Chinese competition. Many of them manage to more than offset this latter trend through higher exports or FDI in services directed to China.
机译:本文分析了中国经济转型的特征之一,即外国直接投资(FDI)对先进服务部门的影响。对于这一目标,我们使用一个创新的可增加的普通均衡(CGE)模型,包括在多区域环境中,在垄断竞争中运营的外国跨国公司。该模型基于将2016年世界经济分成11个地区的数据(中国 - 美国 - 欧盟27 - 英国 - 印度 - 印度 - 日本 - 东南亚 - 拉丁美洲 - 中东 - 撒哈拉以南,21行业。我们提供了关于中国,欧盟27个和美国的几个特征的量化证据,以及中国在全球舞台中的作用的其他数据,包括自2004年以来的演变。若干方案,重点关注FDI流入的增加服务,由于其外国直接投资障碍的减少,模拟导出短期和长期运行结果。我们发现,更多外国跨国公司在服务中的影响对于中国而言是积极的,但小于其他关于在制造商中的外国直接投资的其他研究中获得的那个。这是由于服务在中国经济中的作用仍然有限,并挤出了国内企业在外国跨国公司后经验的兴起。然而,整个影响是对中国略有阳性的,因为制造业受益于外国服务跨国公司的进入。由于服务生产较少导向和更致力于私人消费的事实,其余的地区不受影响或受益于少量的影响。然而,他们的制造业受到强烈的中国竞争对手的伤害。他们中的许多人通过针对中国的服务的更高出口或外国直接投资来说,这些趋势超过了抵消。

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