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(101154)Regional disparity and convergence of electricity consumption in China: A distribution dynamics approach

机译：（101154）中国电力消费的区域差异和收敛性：分销动态方法

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摘要

One critical factor that affects China's achievement of its peak emission by 2030 is total electricity demand. The aim of this study is to examine regional disparity in electricity consumption in China. The analysis is based on a panel database which is compiled at the provincial level. A distributional dynamics approach is then employed to reveal the trend and movement of each province within the distributions in different regional groupings. The mobility probability plot (MPP) is also employed to provide detailed information on the probability of change in electricity consumption. The results demonstrate significant divergence presents across provinces, over time and within different regional groups. The results can pinpoint the transition mechanism within each region so that appropriate energy policy can be formulated to accommodate future demand in electricity for different regions in China. The results suggest that regional specific energy efficiency policy is needed.
机译：影响中国实现其2030年峰发射的一个关键因素是总电力需求。 本研究的目的是研究中国电力消费的区域差异。 分析基于在省级编译的面板数据库。 然后采用分布动力学方法来揭示每个省在不同区域分组中的分布中的每个省的趋势和运动。 迁移率概率曲线（MPP）还用于提供有关电力消耗变化概率的详细信息。 结果表明，随着时间的推移和不同的区域组，省份遍布省份的显着分歧。 结果可以确定每个区域内的过渡机制，以便可以配制适当的能量政策以适应中国不同地区的未来电力需求。 结果表明需要区域特定的能效政策。

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