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Global warming to increase flood risk on European railways

机译：全球变暖，以提高欧洲铁路的洪水风险

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摘要

For effective disaster risk management and adaptation planning, a good understanding of current and projected flood risk is required. Recent advances in quantifying flood risk at the regional and global scale have largely neglected critical infrastructure, or addressed this important sector with insufficient detail. Here, we present the first European-wide assessment of current and future flood risk to railway tracks for different global warming scenarios using an infrastructure-specific damage model. We find that the present risk, measured as expected annual damage, to railway networks in Europe is approx. (sic)581 million per year, with the highest risk relative to the length of the network in North Macedonia, Croatia, Norway, Portugal, and Germany. Based on an ensemble of climate projections for RCP8.5, we show that current risk to railway networks is projected to increase by 255% under a 1.5 degrees C, by 281% under a 2 degrees C, and by 310% under a 3 degrees C warming scenario. The largest increases in risk under a 3 degrees C scenario are projected for Slovakia, Austria, Slovenia, and Belgium. Our advances in the projection of flood risk to railway infrastructure are important given their criticality, and because losses to public infrastructure are usually not insured or even uninsurable in the private market. To cover the risk increase due to climate change, European member states would need to increase expenditure in transport by (sic)1.22 billion annually under a 3 degrees C warming scenario without further adaptation. Limiting global warming to the 1.5 degrees C goal of the Paris Agreement would result in avoided losses of (sic)317 million annually.
机译：为有效的灾害风险管理和适应计划，需要对当前和预测的洪水风险进行良好的理解。在区域和全球范围内量化洪水风险的最新进展主要被忽视了忽视了关键基础设施，或者通过细节不足地解决了这一重要部门。在这里，我们展示了使用基础设施特定的损伤模型的不同全球变暖情景对铁路轨道的第一次对当前和未来洪水风险的欧洲广泛评估。我们发现，欧洲铁路网络的预期年度损害衡量的现行风险约为。 （SIC）每年581万，相对于网络长度的风险最高，北部马其顿，克罗地亚，挪威，葡萄牙和德国。基于RCP8.5的气候预测的集合，我们表明，在2.5摄氏度下投射到铁路网络的当前风险将在1.5摄氏度下增加255％，在2摄氏度下达281％，310％以下C热化场景。为3摄氏度的情况下，风险的最大增长是为斯洛伐克，奥地利，斯洛文尼亚和比利时预测的。我们对铁路基础设施的洪水风险投降的进步很重要，因为他们的关键性，因为对公共基础设施的损失通常不是在私人市场中的投保甚至不可明确的。为了涵盖由于气候变化导致的风险增加，欧洲成员国需要在3摄氏度的温暖情景下每年增加（SIC）12.2亿美元的运输支出，而无需进一步适应。限制全球变暖到巴黎协议的1.5摄氏度的目标将导致每年避免（SIC）31700万张。

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  • 来源
    《Climatic Change》 |2019年第1期|共18页
  • 作者

    Bubeck Philip; Dillenardt Lisa; Alfieri Lorenzo; Feyen Luc; Thieken Annegret H.; Kellermann Patric;

  • 作者单位

    Univ Potsdam Inst Environm Sci &

    Geog Karl Liebknecht Str 24-25 D-14476 Potsdam Germany;

    Univ Potsdam Inst Environm Sci &

    Geog Karl Liebknecht Str 24-25 D-14476 Potsdam Germany;

    European Commiss JRC Directorate E Space Secur &

    Migrat Via E Fermi 2749 I-21027 Ispra VA Italy;

    European Commiss JRC Directorate E Space Secur &

    Migrat Via E Fermi 2749 I-21027 Ispra VA Italy;

    Univ Potsdam Inst Environm Sci &

    Geog Karl Liebknecht Str 24-25 D-14476 Potsdam Germany;

    Univ Potsdam Inst Environm Sci &

    Geog Karl Liebknecht Str 24-25 D-14476 Potsdam Germany;

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  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 大气科学（气象学）;
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