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首页> 外文期刊>Climatic Change >Climate change impacts on the potential productivity of corn and winter wheat in their primary United States growing regions.
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Climate change impacts on the potential productivity of corn and winter wheat in their primary United States growing regions.

机译：气候变化对玉米和冬小麦潜在生产力的影响在他们的主要美国生长区域。

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The impacts of climate effects inferred from three atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) were calculated at three levels of climate change severity associated with change in global mean temperature (GMT) of 1.0, 2.5 and 5.0deg C and three levels of atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]) - 365 (ambient CO2), 560 and 750 p.p.m. on the potential production of dryland winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) and corn (maize, Zea mays) for the primary (current) US growing regions of each crop. This analysisis a subset of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) which has the goal of integrating the linkages and feedbacks among human activities and resulting greenhouse gas emissions, changes in atmospheric composition and resulting climate change, and impacts on terrestrial systems. A set of representative farms was designed for each of the primary production regions studied and the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC) was used to simulate crop response to climate change. The GCMs applied were the Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS), the United Kingdom Meteorological Transient (UKTR) and the Australian Bureau of Meteorological Research Center (BMRC), each regionalized by means of a scenario generator (SCENGEN). The GISS scenarios had theleast impact on maize and wheat production, reducing national potential production for maize by 6% and wheat by 7% at a GMT of 2.5deg C and no CO2 fertilization effect; the UKTR scenario had the most severe impact on wheat, reducing production by 18% underthe same conditions; BMRC had the greatest negative impact on maize, reducing production by 20%. A GMT increase of 1.0deg C marginally decreased maize and wheat production. Increasing GMT had a detrimental impact on both maize and wheat production, with wheat production suffering the greatest losses. Decreases for wheat production at GMT 5.0 and [CO2] = 365 p.p.m. range from 36% for the GISS to 76% for the UKTR scenario. Increases in atmospheric [CO2] had a positive impact on both maize and wheat production. AT GMT 1.0, an increase in [CO2] to 560 p.p.m. resulted in a net increase in maize and wheat production above baseline levels (from 18% to 29% for wheat and from 2% to 5% for maize). Increases in [CO2] helped to offset yield reductions at higher GMT levels but in most cases these increases were not sufficient to return crop production to baseline levels.
机译：从三个大气普通循环模型（GCMS）推断的气候效应的影响是在与1.0,2.5和5.0％的全局平均温度（GMT）变化相关的气候变化严重程度的三个水平的气候变化严重程度和大气压二氧化碳浓度（ [CO2]） - 365（环境CO2），560和750 ppm关于旱地冬小麦（Triticum Aestivum）和玉米（玉米，Zea）的潜在生产，用于每种作物的主要（当前）美国生长区域。这分析了全球变更评估模型（GCAM）的一部分，其目的是整合人类活动中的联系和反馈，并产生温室气体排放，大气成分的变化以及导致气候变化，以及对陆地系统的影响。为每个主要生产区域设计了一组代表性农场，并使用侵蚀生产率影响计算器（EPIC）来模拟作物对气候变化的反应。所申请的GCMS是戈达德太空研究所（GISS），英国气象瞬态（UKTR）和澳大利亚气象研究中心（BMRC），每个地区化通过情景发生器（SCENGEN）。 GISS情景对玉米和小麦生产产生了影响，降低了玉米的国家潜在产量6％，小麦在2.5分层C和NO 2施肥效果的GMT效果7％; UKTR情景对小麦的影响最严重，在相同条件下减少产量18％; BMRC对玉米产生负面影响最大，减少产量20％。 GMT增加1.0分，玉米和小麦产量略有下降。增加GMT对玉米和小麦生产产生有害影响，小麦产量遭受最大的损失。在GMT 5.0和[CO2] = 365 P.M的小麦产量减少。对于UKTR情景，侏州的36％至76％。大气压增加[CO2]对玉米和小麦产量产生积极影响。在GMT 1.0中，增加[CO2]至560 P.M.导致玉米和小麦产量高于基线水平的净增加（小麦的18％至29％，玉米的2％至5％）。 [二氧化碳]增加有助于在高产GMT水平下抵消产量减少，但在大多数情况下，这些增加不足以将作物产量恢复到基线水平。

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