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The impact of climate change on migration: a synthesis of recent empirical insights

机译：气候变化对迁移的影响：近期实证见解的合成

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Concern about the human impact of climate change has led to predictions of how people living in areas vulnerable to drought, flood, and temperature changes will respond to such events. Early studies warned that climate change would lead to dramatic increases in human migration as households became unable to adapt to the impacts of climate change. More recently, empirical studies focused on observed climate events and trends have documented how migration flows vary as a function of both the severity of the event and the ability of the household to migrate, among other factors. In this paper, we provide a systematic review of this literature, based on a conceptual framework in which climate shocks (e.g., drought, floods, or temperature extremes) affect (a) household capability to migrate, by depleting household resources necessary for migration, and (b) household vulnerability in staying, by increasing the risk that a household falls (further) into poverty. In combination, these factors help explain four key patterns seen in the empirical literature: (1) climate-induced migration is not necessarily more prevalent among poorer households; (2) climate-induced migration tends to be more prevalent for long-distance domestic moves than local or international moves; (3) slow-onset climate changes (such as droughts) are more likely to induce increased migration than rapid-onset changes (such as floods); and (4) the severity of climate shocks impacts migration in a nonlinear fashion, with impacts influenced by whether the capability or vulnerability channel dominates.
机译：对气候变化的人类影响的担忧导致预测生活在易受干旱，洪水和温度变化的地区的人们如何回应这些事件。早期研究警告说，由于家庭无法适应气候变化的影响，气候变化将导致人类移民的巨大增加。最近，专注于观察到的气候事件和趋势的实证研究记录了迁移流量如何因事件的严重程度以及家庭迁移的能力而异的职能。在本文中，我们根据概念框架提供对该文献的系统审查，其中气候冲击（例如，干旱，洪水或极端）影响（a）家庭能力迁移的家庭能力，通过消耗迁移所需的家庭资源， （b）通过增加家庭（进一步）陷入贫困的风险，居住的家庭脆弱性。组合，这些因素有助于解释在经验文献中看到的四种关键模式：（1）气候诱导的移民在较贫穷的家庭中不一定普遍存在; （2）气候诱导的迁移对于长途国内举措比当地或国际举措更为普遍; （3）缓慢发病气候变化（如干旱）更有可能诱导增加的迁移，而不是快速发病变化（如洪水）; （4）气候冲击的严重程度会影响非线性时尚的迁移，影响能力或漏洞渠道是否占主导地位的影响。

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