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Climate change in Nepal: a comprehensive analysis of instrumental data and people's perceptions

机译：尼泊尔气候变化：综合分析仪器数据和人们的看法

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Despite broad scientific consensus on climate change, public views may not always correspond with scientific findings. Understanding public perceptions of climate change is thus crucial to both identifying problems and delivering solutions. Investigations of climate change that integrate instrumental records and people's perceptions in the Himalayas are scarce and fragmentary compared to other regions of the world. We analyzed nationally representative data (n=5060) of local peoples' perception of climate change in Nepal, and assessed annual and seasonal trends of temperature and precipitation, onsets of seasons, and trends of climate extremes, based on gridded climate datasets. We firstly used quantitative and spatial techniques to compare local perceptions and the instrumentally observed trends of climate variables. We then examined the possible association of demographic variables, place attachment, regional differences, and prior understanding of climate change with the accuracy of people's perceptions. Instrumental evidence showed consistent warming, increasing hot days and nights, and increasing annual precipitation, wet spells, heavy precipitation and decreasing dry spells in Nepal. Our results indicate that locals accurately perceived the shifts in temperature but their perceptions of precipitation change did not converge with the instrumental records. We suggest that, in future as exposure to changes in weather, particularly extreme events, continues, people may become more likely to detect change which corresponds with observed trends. With some new methodological insights gained through integrating community perceptions with observed climate data, the results of this study provides valuable information to support policies to reduce climate-related risk and enhance climate change adaptation.
机译：尽管对气候变化有广泛的科学共识，但公众意见可能并不总是与科学结果相对应。因此，了解公众对气候变化的看法对识别问题和提供解决方案至关重要。与世界其他地区相比，整合有限记录和人民在喜马拉雅人的感知的气候变化的调查是稀缺和零碎的。我们分析了当地人民对尼泊尔气候变化的看法的国家代表性数据（n = 5060），并根据包装的气候数据集评估了年龄和季节性的温度和降水，季节和气候极端趋势的趋势。我们首先使用了定量和空间技术来比较局部看法和有乐地观察到气候变量的趋势。然后，我们审查了人口变量的可能性，将附加，区域差异以及对气候变化的准确性提高了人们看法的准确性。仪器证据表明，炎热的日子和夜晚，增加了炎热的日子和夜晚，增加了尼泊尔的湿法，湿法，重度沉淀和减少干燥。我们的结果表明，当地人准确地感知温度变化，但它们对降水变化的看法不会与仪器记录收敛。我们建议，在将来，由于暴露于天气的变化，特别是极端的事件，持续，人们可能更有可能检测与观察到的趋势相对应的变化。通过将社区看法与观察到的气候数据集成，本研究的结果提供了一些新的方法，该研究提供了有价值的信息，以支持降低气候相关风险的政策，并提高气候变化适应。

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