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Trait-based prediction of extinction risk of small-bodied freshwater fishes

机译：基于特质的小型淡水鱼消灭风险预测

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Small body size is generally correlated with r-selected life-history traits, including early maturation, short-generation times, and rapid growth rates, that result in high population turnover and a reduced risk of extinction. Unlike other classes of vertebrates, however, small freshwater fishes appear to have an equal or greater risk of extinction than large fishes. We explored whether particular traits explain the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List conservation status of small-bodied freshwater fishes from 4 temperate river basins: Murray-Darling, Australia; Danube, Europe; Mississippi-Missouri, North America; and the Rio Grande, North America. Twenty-three ecological and life-history traits were collated for all 171 freshwater fishes of 120 mm total length. We used generalized linear mixed-effects models to assess which combination of the 23 traits best explained whether a species was threatened or not threatened. We used the best models to predict the probability of 29 unclassified species being listed as threatened. With and without controlling for phylogeny at the family level, small body sizeamong small-bodied specieswas the most influential trait correlated with threatened species listings. The k-folds cross-validation demonstrated that body size and a random effect structure that included family predicted the threat status with an accuracy of 78% (SE 0.5). We identified 10 species likely to be threatened that are not listed as such on the IUCN Red List. Small body size is not a trait that provides universal resistance to extinction, particularly for vertebrates inhabiting environments affected by extreme habitat loss and fragmentation. We hypothesize that this is because small-bodied species have smaller home ranges, lower dispersal capabilities, and heightened ecological specialization relative to larger vertebrates. Trait data and further model development are needed to predict the IUCN conservation status of the over 11,000 unclassified freshwater fishes, especially those under threat from proposed dam construction in the world's most biodiverse river basins.
机译：小体尺寸通常与R型寿命历史特征相关，包括早熟，发酵时间和快速增长率，导致人口营业额的高度和降低的灭绝风险。然而，与其他类别的脊椎动物不同，小淡水鱼似乎具有比大鱼的灭绝的平等或更大的风险。我们探讨了特定的特质是否解释了自然保护区（IUCN）的国际联盟（IUCN）的红色列表保护状态，来自4个温带河流域的小型淡水鱼：澳大利亚Murray-Darling;多瑙河，欧洲;密西西比州密西西比密苏里州，北美;和北美里约格兰德。为所有171个淡水鱼类的120毫米总长度进行了二十三个生态和历史历史特征。我们使用了广义的线性混合效果模型来评估23个特征的哪种组合最能解释物种是否受到威胁或未受到威胁。我们利用最好的模型来预测所列威胁的29种未被归类的物种的可能性。随着家庭水平的系统水平，小体小体小体型的含有和不控制系统水平，最有影响力的性质与受威胁物种列表相关。 K折叠交叉验证证明，包括家族的体尺寸和随机效应结构预测了78％（SE 0.5）的准确性的威胁状态。我们确定了10种可能受到威胁的物种，这些物种未在IUCN红色清单上列出。小体尺寸不是提供普遍抗灭绝的特征，特别是对于受极端栖息地损失和碎片影响影响的脊椎动物。我们假设这是因为小型物种具有较小的家庭范围，降低分散能力，以及相对于较大脊椎动物的生态专业化。需要具有特征数据和进一步的模型开发，以预测超过11,000个未分类的淡水鱼的IUCN保护状况，特别是那些受到世界上大坝建设的威胁中的威胁中的威胁。

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