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首页> 外文期刊>AACE International Transactions >Ongoing Projects: Forecasting Total Project Cost Using Bottom Up Approach and EV
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Ongoing Projects: Forecasting Total Project Cost Using Bottom Up Approach and EV

机译：正在进行的项目：使用自下而上的方法和EV预测总项目成本

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摘要

Forecasting total project cost (TPC) for ongoing projects can be very tricky and challenging. In execution phase, project scope, cost and schedule are more refined compared to conceptual or front end phase when the total project cost is estimated for sanction, hence, resulting in higher expectations from project stakeholders in terms of reliability or accuracy of the forecasted total project cost for decision making (e.g. funding, CAPEX rationalization etc.). After contracts are awarded, contractor's performance, project location, unplanned scopes and other uncertainties will still potentially cause fluctuations in forecast. This will lead to difficulties for clients to monitor project costs. Nevertheless, proper attention and insights from project management practices will make forecasting total project cost a far less daunting exercise. This paper focuses on forecasting total project cost for ongoing projects from a client perspective using bottom up forecasting and EV technique. Recommendations based on projects lesson learned and industry's best practices to increase reliability or accuracy in forecasting total project cost (TPC) for ongoing projects will be shared.
机译：预测持续项目的总项目成本（TPC）可能非常棘手和具有挑战性。在执行阶段，项目范围，成本和时间表与概念或前端阶段相比，当概念或前端阶段估计总项目成本进行制裁时，从而导致项目利益相关者在预测总项目的可靠性或准确性方面的预期较高决策成本（例如资金，资本资本合理化等）。合同授予合同后，承包商的表现，项目定位，无计划范围和其他不确定性仍可能导致预测波动。这将导致客户监控项目成本的困难。尽管如此，项目管理实践的适当关注和见解将使预测总项目成本远不那么令人生畏。本文侧重于使用自下而上的预测和EV技术从客户透视中预测持续项目的总项目成本。基于项目课程的建议和行业的最佳实践增加预测持续项目总项目成本（TPC）的可靠性或准确性将分享。

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