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Statistical Downscaling and Projection of Future Air Temperature Changes in Yunnan Province, China

机译：云南省未来空气温度变化的统计镇流和预测

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摘要

TheSDSMwas employed for downscaling of daily mean temperature of 32meteorological stations (1954-2014) and future scenarios were generated up to 2100. The data were daily NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the daily mean climate model outputs for the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios from the MRI of Japan. Periodic features were obtained by wavelet analysis. The results showed the following. (1) The pattern of change and the numerical values of the air temperature could be reasonably simulated, with the average R~2 between observed and generated data being 0.963 for calibration and 0.964 for validation. (2) All scenarios projected increases of different degrees of temperature in all seasons, except for spring in the 2020s. Annually, themost remarkable changes in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s were 0.27, 1.00, and 1.84°C, respectively. Seven dominant periods appeared under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 from 1954 to 2100; however, an additional period appeared under RCP2.6. (3) In future periods, especially the 2020s, decreases in temperature were significantly located in the center of Yunnan under all three scenarios, whereas there were distinct increases in northwest and southeast Yunnan in most future periods. Besides, the RCP8.5 scenario showed the greatest increase in the 2080s.
机译：用于缩小32个气象站的每日平均温度的ThesdsMwas（1954-2014）和未来的情景，最多可产生2100.每日NCEP / NCAR再分析数据和RCP2.6，RCP4.5的日常平均气候模型输出。和日本MRI的RCP8.5情景。通过小波分析获得定期特征。结果表明以下。 （1）可以合理地模拟变化模式和空气温度的数值，观察和产生的数据之间的平均R〜2为0.963，用于校准和0.964验证。 （2）所有场景都预计所有季节的不同程度的温度增加，除了2020年代的春天。每年，2020年代，2050年代和2080年代的对比变化分别为0.27,1.00和1.84°C。七个优势期出现在RCP4.5和1954年至2100的RCP4.5和RCP8.5;但是，在RCP2.6下出现了额外的时间。 （3）在未来的期间，特别是2020年代，温度下降，在所有三种情况下，云南省中心都显着地位于云南中心，而在最新时期，西北部和东南部的云南省截然不同。此外，RCP8.5情景表明2080年代最大的增加。

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  • 来源
    《Advances in Meteorology》 |2017年第1期|共11页
  • 作者

    Jiaxu Liu; Sujing Chen; Lijuan Li; Jiuyi Li;

  • 作者单位

    Key Laboratory ofWater Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) Beijing 100101 China;

    Key Laboratory ofWater Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) Beijing 100101 China;

    Key Laboratory ofWater Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) Beijing 100101 China;

    Key Laboratory ofWater Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) Beijing 100101 China;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 大气科学（气象学）;
  • 关键词

    Statistical Downscaling; Future Air Temperature Changes; scenarios projected increases;

    机译：统计缩小;未来的空气温度变化;方案预计增加;

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