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A Comparative Frequency Analysis of Maximum Daily Rainfall for a SE Asian Region under Current and Future Climate Conditions

机译：当前和未来气候条件下SE亚洲地区最大日降雨量的比较频率分析

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摘要

The impact of changing climate on the frequency of daily rainfall extremes in Jakarta, Indonesia, is analysed and quantified. The study used three different models to assess the changes in rainfall characteristics.The first method involves the use of the weather generator LARS-WG to quantify changes between historical and future daily rainfall maxima. The second approach consists of statistically downscaling general circulationmodel (GCM) output based on historical empirical relationships between GCMoutput and station rainfall. Lastly, the study employed recent statistically downscaled global gridded rainfall projections to characterize climate change impact rainfall structure. Both annual and seasonal rainfall extremes are studied. The results show significant changes in annual maximum daily rainfall, with an average increase as high as 20% in the 100-year return period daily rainfall. The uncertainty arising from the use of different GCMs was found to be much larger than the uncertainty from the emission scenarios. Furthermore, the annual and wet seasonal analyses exhibit similar behaviors with increased future rainfall, but the dry season is not consistent across the models.The GCM uncertainty is larger in the dry season compared to annual and wet season.
机译：分析和量化改变气候变化对雅加达的日落极端频率的影响。该研究使用了三种不同的模型来评估降雨特性的变化。第一种方法涉及使用天气发生器Lars-WG来量化历史和未来日降雨最大值之间的变化。第二种方法包括基于GCMOutput和站降雨之间的历史实证关系的统计上较统计的通用循环模型（GCM）输出。最后，该研究采用了最近的统计上较低的全球网格降雨预测，以表征气候变化影响降雨结构。研究了年度和季节性降雨极端。结果表现出年度最大降雨量的重大变化，平均增幅高达100年回报期每日降雨量。发现使用不同的GCMS产生的不确定性远远大于发射方案的不确定性。此外，年度和潮湿的季节性分析表现出类似的行为，增加了未来降雨量，但干燥的季节在整个模型上并不一致。与年度和潮湿的季节相比，干燥季节的GCM不确定性更大。

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