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From plot to scale: ex-ante assessment of conservation agriculture in Zambia

机译：从情节到规模：赞比亚保护农业的前蚂蚁评估

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This study combined bottom-up and top-down approaches to assess the ex-ante effects of conservation agriculture (CA)-based systems in Zambia considering both biophysical and economic factors and prevailing farm systems characteristics. For continuous maize cropping we compared a CA-based system of no-tillage with crop residue retention to a control system of conventional tillage with crop residue removal. First, we simulated yield effects that were calibrated and evaluated against multiple datasets, including on-farm agronomic trials from two seasons and six sites. Next, we extrapolated our simulations to all maize-growing areas in Zambia using gridded climate and soil datasets. Then simulated yields (in kg ha(-1)) were combined with economic data from a nationally-representative household survey to construct economic indicators including benefit-cost ratios (based on gross benefits and variable costs both in $ ha(-1)) that captured the implicit value of crop residues and labor demands. The field scale (per ha) indicators were scaled out using harvested areas as an expansion factor. All indicators were calculated over 3-, 10-, and 20-year simulation periods using an interpolated sequence of historical climate data. Finally, we conducted a spatial farm typology analysis to help understand the spatial variation in our field-scale indicators and provide insights into trade-offs and the suitability of CA-based systems for farmers. Average changes in yield from using CA-based systems (compared with the control) at the district scale ranged from -37% to 70% (average 33%), with a similar range of changes in benefit-cost ratios once economic factors were included, in addition to intra-district yield variability. Combining the changes in benefit cost ratios with maize harvested area resulted in an average annual change in district-scale net benefit ranging from US $ - 3.9 to US $9.9 million (with an average of US $1.1 million). The heterogeneity in biophysical and economic factors gave a ranking of provinces different according to biophysical or economic indicators, reinforcing the importance of coupling biophysical and economic approaches. The spatial farm typology analysis highlighted the specific contexts of farmers relevant to the suitability of CA, such as their mineral fertilizer applications rates, ownership of livestock, and prevailing soil texture and rainfall.
机译：本研究结合了自下而上的和自上而下的方法来评估赞比亚的基于储备农业（CA）的排尿效果，考虑到生物物理和经济因素和普遍存在的农场系统特征。对于连续玉米作物，我们将基于Ca的无耕作系统与作物残留物保留的Ca为残留物保留，并通过作物残留物去除常规耕作的控制系统。首先，我们模拟了校准的产量效应，并针对多个数据集评估，包括来自两个季节和六个地点的农场农艺试验。接下来，我们将我们的模拟推断给赞比亚的所有玉米生长区域使用包装的气候和土壤数据集。然后模拟产量（在KG Ha（-1）中）与来自国家代表性的家庭调查的经济数据相结合，构建经济指标，包括福利 - 成本比例（基于$ HA（-1）的总福利和可变成本）捕获了作物残留物和劳动需求的隐含价值。使用收获的区域作为膨胀因子来缩小现场比例（每公顷）指标。使用历史气候数据的内插序列，计算所有指标以超过3分，10-和20年和20年的仿真期。最后，我们进行了一项空间农场类型分析，以帮助了解我们的现场规模指标的空间变化，并提供对权衡的洞察，以及对农民的基于CA的适用性。使用基于CA的系统（与控制相比）的平均变化在地区等级的范围为-37％至70％（平均33％），一旦包括经济因素，就具有相似的益处成本比率变化除了地区内部屈服差异之外。结合玉米收获面积的福利成本比的变化导致了地区规模净利润的平均年度变化，从美元 - 3.9美元到990万美元（平均为110万美元）。生物物理和经济因素的异质性得到了根据生物物理或经济指标的省份的排名，加强了耦合生物物理和经济方法的重要性。空间农场类型分析突出了与CA适用性相关的农民的具体背景，例如它们的矿物肥料应用率，牲畜所有权以及盛行的土壤纹理和降雨。

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