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Regional variations in the link between drought indices and reported agricultural impacts of drought

机译：干旱指数与农业影响之间的区域变异

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Drought has wide ranging impacts on all sectors. Despite much effort to identify the best drought indicator to represents the occurrence of drought impacts in a particular sector, there is still no consensus among the scientific community on this. Using a more detailed and extensive impact dataset than in previous studies, this paper assesses the regional relationship between drought impacts occurrence in British agriculture and two of the most commonly used drought indices (SPI and SPEI). The largest qualitative dataset on reported drought impacts on British agriculture for the period 1975-2012 spanning all major recent droughts was collated. Logistic regression using generalised additive models was applied to investigate the association between drought indices and reported impacts at the regional level. Results show that SPEI calculated for the preceding six months is the best indicator to predict the probability of drought impacts on agriculture in the UK, although the variation in the response to SPEI6 differed between regions. However, this variation appears to result both from the method by which SPEI is derived, which means that similar values of the index equate to different soil moisture conditions in wet and dry regions, and from the variation in agriculture between regions. The study shows that SPEI alone has limited value as an indicator of agricultural droughts in heterogeneous areas and that such results cannot be usefully extrapolated between regions. However, given the drought sensitivity of agriculture, the integration of regional predictions within drought monitoring and forecasting would help to reduce the large on farm economic damage of drought and increase the sector's resilience to future drought.
机译：干旱对所有部门的影响范围广泛影响。尽管有很多努力识别最佳干旱指标，但代表特定部门的干旱影响发生，但科学界仍然没有共识。本文使用比以前的研究更详细和广泛的影响数据集，评估了英国农业发生的干旱影响与最常用的干旱指数（SPI和SPEI）之间的区域关系。收治了跨越最近干旱所有主要干旱的1975 - 2012年度英国农业的最大定性数据集。应用了使用广义添加剂模型的逻辑回归来研究干旱指数与报告在区域一级的影响。结果表明，前六个月计算的SPEI是预测英国农业干旱影响概率的最佳指标，尽管对地区的响应响应的变化不同。然而，这种变化似乎来自所导出的方法，这意味着指数的类似值等于湿和干燥区域的不同土壤水分条件，以及区域之间的农业变化。该研究表明，仅作为异质区域的农业干旱指标，Spei的价值有限，并且这种结果不能在地区之间有效推断。然而，鉴于农业的干旱敏感性，在干旱监测和预测中，区域预测的整合将有助于减少对干旱的农业经济损害，并增加该部门对未来干旱的恢复力。

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