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首页> 外文期刊>Agricultural Water Management >Assessing agricultural risk management using historic crop insurance loss data over the ogallala aquifer
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Assessing agricultural risk management using historic crop insurance loss data over the ogallala aquifer

机译：在ogallala含水层上使用历史性作物保险损失数据评估农业风险管理

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摘要

Much of the agricultural production in the Ogallala Aquifer region relies on groundwater for irrigation. In addition to declining water levels, weather and climate-driven events affect crop yields and revenues. Crop insurance serves as a risk management tool to mitigate these perils. Here, we seek to understand what long-term crop insurance loss data can tell us about agricultural risk management in the Ogallala. We assess patterns and trends in crop insurance loss data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture Risk Management Agency. Indemnities, or insurance payments, totaled $22 billion from 1989-2017 for the 161 counties that overlie the Ogallala Aquifer. We focused on the top ten weather and climate-driven causes of crop loss for the Ogallala, which comprised at least 92% of total indemnities. Drought, hail, and heat were the leading causes of crop loss for the region, and varied over space and time. For example, drought is a significant cause of loss across all seasons, while hail is more prevalent in the spring and summer. Spatially heterogeneous patterns emerged showing larger hail indemnities in the northern Ogallala versus larger drought indemnities in the southern portion. We performed a Mann-Kendall trend analysis of county-level annual loss cost values (the ratio of indemnities to liabilities). Drought and excess moisture showed significant increasing loss cost trends in the western counties of the Ogallala. In contrast, hail showed significant decreasing trends in the northern and eastern portions. These results suggest the northern counties of the Ogallala may perceive hail as a greater risk, and may be better equipped to handle drought losses as compared with the southern Ogallala. Crop insurance loss data play a role in integrating long-term trends with near-term management practices, and providing relevant risk information in producers' operational to tactical decision making processes.
机译：Ogallala Aquifer Region的大部分农业生产依赖于地下水进行灌溉。除了下降的水位外，天气和气候驱动的事件还影响作物产量和收入。作物保险用作减轻这些危险的风险管理工具。在这里，我们寻求了解哪些长期作物保险损失数据可以告诉我们ogallala的农业风险管理。我们评估来自美国农业风险管理机构的作物保险损失数据的模式和趋势。赔偿或保险费总额为1989 - 2017年的220亿美元，为ogallala含水层覆盖的161个县。我们专注于ogallala的十大天气和气候驱动的作物损失原因，其中包括总赔偿的至少92％。干旱，冰雹和热量是该地区作物损失的主要原因，并在空间和时间内变化。例如，干旱是所有季节损失的重要原因，而春季和夏季的冰雹更为普遍。出现了空间异构模式，显示南部北奥加拉拉北部的冰雹赔偿较大。我们对县级年度亏损成本价值（负债赔偿比例）进行了曼肯德拉德趋势分析。干旱和过量的水分在ogallala的西部县表现出显着的损失成本趋势。相比之下，冰雹在北部和东部部分呈现出显着降低的趋势。这些结果表明，奥格拉拉的北县可能会被认为是更大的风险，并且可以更好地配备与南奥加拉尔南部相比处理干旱损失。作物保险损失数据在整合近期管理实践的长期趋势中发挥作用，并在生产者运作到战术决策过程中提供相关风险信息。

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