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首页> 外文期刊>Agricultural Water Management >Climate-driven constraints in sustaining future wheat yield and water productivity
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Climate-driven constraints in sustaining future wheat yield and water productivity

机译：气候驱动的限制在维持未来小麦产量和水生产率下

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摘要

Conceptualising wheat growth, yield and water productivity (WP) relationships with future climate change is necessary for sustainable agriculture and food security. This study assessed the climate change influences on wheat yield and WP with and without CO2 enrichment under semi-arid conditions. Statically bias-corrected climate change projections were coupled with AquaCrop model v5.0 to predict the wheat growth-span, yield and WP variations in Punjab, Pakistan. Acute wheat seasonal warming, characterised by sharp T-min increase than T-max, and substantial rainfall drops lead to short growth-spans and prompt ample yield reductions. However, CO2 enrichment promises to offset the negative wheat yield trends. Higher wheat yield vulnerability was detected for the late-season climate warming during the grain-filling stage. Wheat yield reduction and the limited influence of beneficial CO2-enrichment caused the future WP to decline consistently. CO2 enrichment featured a noteworthy mitigation role in sustaining and improving future wheat yield and WP. In conclusion, CO2 enrichment could impart some beneficial influences to wheat yield and WP, but would not fully eliminate the negative impacts of future climate warming under semi-arid conditions of Punjab, Pakistan. The reliability of such estimates demands a further in-depth examination of crop yield responses to carbon-temperature-water interactions under various field management conditions.
机译：概念性的小麦生长，产量和水生产率（WP）与未来气候变化的关系是可持续农业和粮食安全的必要条件。本研究评估了在半干旱条件下对小麦产量和WP的气候变化对小麦产量和WP的影响。静态偏置的气候变化投影与Aquacrop Model V5.0联系，以预测Punjab，巴基斯坦的小麦生长跨度，产量和WP变化。急性小麦季节性变暖，其特征在于尖锐的T-min增加而不是T-Max，大量的降雨降至较短的生长跨度，并提示耗材减少。但是，二氧化碳浓缩承诺抵消负小麦产量趋势。在籽粒灌装阶段期间，检测到季节气候变暖的较高小麦产量脆弱性。小麦产量减少和有益二氧化碳的影响有限导致未来WP一贯下降。 CO2浓缩在维持和改善未来小麦产量和WP方面具有值得注意的缓解作用。总之，二氧化碳浓缩可以赋予小麦产量和WP的一些有益影响，但不会完全消除在巴基斯坦旁遮普条件下的半干旱条件下未来气候变暖的负面影响。这种估计的可靠性要求在各种现场管理条件下进一步深入地检查作物产量反应对碳温 - 水相互作用。

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