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Willingness to pay for improved irrigation water supply reliability: An approach based on probability density functions

机译：提高灌溉供水可靠性的支付愿意：一种基于概率密度函数的方法

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摘要

In irrigated agricultural systems, a major source of uncertainty relates to water supply, as it significantly affects farm income. This paper investigates farmers' utility changes associated with shifts in the probability density function of water supply leading to a higher water supply reliability (higher mean and lower variance in annual water allotments). A choice experiment relying on a mean-variance approach is applied to the case study of an irrigation district of the Guadalquivir River Basin (southern Spain). To our knowledge, this is the first study using parameters of these probability density functions of water supply as choice experiment attributes to value water supply reliability. Results show that there are different types of farmers according to their willingness to pay (WTP) for improvements in water supply reliability, with some willing to pay nothing (47.8%) while others have a relatively low (28.0%) or high (24.2%) WTP. A range of factors influencing farmers' preferences toward water supply reliability are revealed, with those related to risk exposure to water availability being of special importance. The results can be used to assist the design of more efficient policy instruments to improve water supply reliability in Mediterranean and semi-arid climate regions.
机译：在灌溉农业系统中，主要的不确定性来源涉及供水，因为它显着影响农业收入。本文调查了与供水概率密度函数的变化相关联的农民的实用性变化，导致较高的供水可靠性（年度水分配的平均值和较低的差异）。依赖于平均方差方法的选择实验适用于瓜达拉尔河流域灌区（南西班牙）的灌溉区的案例研究。为了我们的知识，这是使用这些概率密度函数的参数的第一次研究，作为选择实验属性，以减价供水可靠性。结果表明，根据其愿意支付（WTP）的愿意改善供水可靠性的不同类型的农民，有些人愿意支付任何费用（47.8％），而其他人则具有相对较低（28.0％）或高（24.2％） ）WTP。影响农民偏好于供水可靠性的一系列因素被揭示，与风险暴露在水可用性的情况下具有特殊重要性。结果可用于协助设计更有效的政策仪器，以提高地中海和半干旱气候区域的供水可靠性。

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