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首页> 外文期刊>Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application >Multiple Systems Estimation (or Capture-Recapture Estimation) to Inform PublicPolicy
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Multiple Systems Estimation (or Capture-Recapture Estimation) to Inform PublicPolicy

机译：多系统估算（或捕获 - 重新捕获估算）以通知公共政策

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摘要

Applications of estimating population sizes range from estimating human or ecological population size within regions or countries to estimating the hidden number of civilian casualties in war. Total enumeration via a census is typically infeasible. However, a series of partial enumerations of a population is often possible, leading to capture-recapture methods, which have been extensively used in ecology to estimate the size of wildlife populations with an associated measure of uncertainty and are most effectively applied when there are multiple capture occasions. Capture-recapture ideology can be more widely applied to multiple data sources by the linkage of individuals across multiple lists, often referred to as multiple systems estimation (MSE).The MSE approach is preferred when estimating capture-shy or hard-to-reach populations, including those who are caught up in the criminal justice system, trafficked, or civilian casualties of war. Motivated by the public policy applications of MSE, eachbriefly introduced, we discuss practical problems with methodological implications. They include period definition; case definition; scenarios when an observed count is not a true count of the population of interest but an upper bound due to mismatched definitions; exact or probabilistic matching of cases across lists; demographic or other information about the case that influences capture propensities; permissions to access lists; list creation by research teams or interested parties; referrals (if presence on list A results, almost surely, in presence on list 5); different mathematical models leading to widely different estimatedpopulation sizes; uncertainty in estimation; computational efficiency; external validation; hypothesis generation; and additional independent external information. Returning to our motivational applications, we focus finally on whether the uncertainty that qualified their estimates was sufficiently narrow to orient public policy.
机译：估计人口尺寸的应用范围从地区或国家内估计人类或生态人口大小，以估计战争中隐藏的民用伤亡人数。通过人口普查的总枚举通常是不可行的。然而，通常可能的一系列部分枚举是可能的，导致捕获 - 重新捕获方法，这些方法已广泛用于生态学，以估计具有相关的不确定性的相关衡量标准的野生动物群体的大小，并且在有多个时最有效地应用捕获场合。通过多个列表中的个体链接，通常称为多个系统估计（MSE），可以更广泛地应用于多个数据源。在估计捕获害羞或难以达到的人群时，MSE方法是优选的，包括那些陷入刑事司法系统，被贩运或民用战争的人。通过MSE的公共政策申请的动机，我们介绍了，我们讨论了方法论影响的实际问题。它们包括期间定义;案例定义;观察计数不是感兴趣群体的真实计数，但由于不匹配的定义，上限;列表中的案例确切或概率匹配;有关影响捕获能力的案件的人口或其他信息;访问列表的权限;研究团队或有关各方的名单创建;转介（如果在列表5上的情况下，几乎肯定地列出了结果，那么不同的数学模型导致广泛不同的估计尺寸;估计的不确定性;计算效率;外部验证;假设生成;和其他独立的外部信息。返回我们的励志申请，我们最终关注有资格估计的​​不确定性是否足以缩小到东方公共政策。

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