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首页> 外文期刊>Applied Engineering in Agriculture >CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON RUNOFF, SEDIMENT, AND NUTRIENT LOADS IN AN AGRICULTURAL WATERSHED IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER BASIN
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CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON RUNOFF, SEDIMENT, AND NUTRIENT LOADS IN AN AGRICULTURAL WATERSHED IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER BASIN

机译：在密西西比河流域的农业分水岭中对径流，沉积物和营养负荷的气候变化影响

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Projected climate change can impact various aspects of agricultural systems, including the nutrient and sediment loads exported from agricultural fields. This study evaluated the potential changes in runoff, sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus loads using projected climate estimates from 2041-2070 in the Beasley Lake watershed in Mississippi, USA, using the Annualized Agricultural Non-Point Source (AnnAGNPS) pollution watershed model. For baseline conditions and model inputs an earlier validated simulation of the watershed was used with an event-based NSE of 0.81 for runoff and 0.54 for sediment without calibration. Fifteen global climate models (GCMs) for the climate change scenario RCP8.5 in Western Mississippi were used. Daily precipitation and air temperature were generated with the weather generator SYNTOR. Daily climate data derived from all 15 GCMS were used in AnnAGNPS simulations to generate ensemble projected loads, and climate data from four GCMs were used in simulations to assess the effectiveness of five different conservation practices for reducing projected loads. Predicted median annual-average pollutant loads increased by 9% to 12% with ensemble projected climate change. However, no-tillage and cover crop conservation practices were predicted to reduce pollutant loads from 20% to 75% below historical levels despite the impacts of climate change. This study suggests that greater implementation of conservation practices can be effective at mitigating water quality degradation associated with projected climate change.
机译：预计的气候变化可能会影响农业系统的各个方面，包括从农业领域出口的营养和沉积物。本研究评估了使用年度农业非点源（Annagnnps）污染流域模型的Beasley Lake Soutershed 2041-2070的预计气候估算的径流，沉积物，氮气和磷荷载的潜在变化。对于基线条件和模型输入，流域的早期经过验证的仿真使用的基于事件的NSE为0.81，对于径流，0.54用于沉积物而无需校准。利用了十五个全球气候模型（GCMS）的气候变化场景RCP8.5在西部密西西比州。使用天气发生器脱节剂产生每日降水和空气温度。从所有15个GCMS的日常气候数据用于AnnagnNPS模拟以产生集合投影载荷，并且使用来自四个GCM的气候数据用于模拟，以评估五种不同保护实践的有效性，以减少投影负荷。预测中位数年平均污染物负荷增加了9％至12％，随着项目的气候变化。然而，尽管气候变化的影响，但预计每种耕作和覆盖作物保护实践将减少20％至75％以下的污染物负荷。本研究表明，较大的保护实践实施可以有效地减轻与预计气候变化相关的水质降解。

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