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A Method of Forecasting Solar Activity Based on Radio Astronomical Observations

机译：一种基于射电天文观测的太阳能率预测的方法

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We present the results of forecasting flare activity based on the data from microwave spectropolarimetric observations of active regions (ARs) obtained with the RATAN-600 radio telescope and the X-ray data from the GOES satellite as well as monitoring data. The method is designed for short-term (1-3-days) flare forecasts. Proton events are considered as part of the general flare problem. Obtaining a reliable forecast is a difficult process in view of the multi-parameter and multi-dimensional system of plasma parameter variations and multiple non-linear interconnections.We used a modified Tanaka-Enome criterion, as well a database of observational material collected over many years. The forecasting efficiency was analyzed depending on the threshold values of the criterion. We show that the quality of the radio astronomical forecast is determined by the level of sensitivity of the detector at short centimeterwavelengths and by the solar activity level.
机译：我们介绍了基于来自Ratan-600无线电望远镜的有源区（ARS）的微波谱分布观察的数据的预测耀斑活动的结果，以及来自GES卫星的X射线数据以及监测数据。 该方法专为短期（1-3天）耀斑预测。 质子事件被认为是一般火炬问题的一部分。 考虑到等离子体参数变化和多个非线性互连的多参数和多维系统，获得可靠的预测是难度的过程。我们使用了修改的Tanaka-enome标准，以及收集的历层的经过修改的Tanaka-enome标准 年。 根据标准的阈值分析预测效率。 我们表明，无线电天文预测的质量由厘米厘米波长和太阳能水平的探测器的灵敏度水平决定。

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