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Economic evaluation of climate risk adaptation strategies: Cost-benefit analysis of flood protection in Tabasco, Mexico

机译：气候风险适应策略的经济评价：墨西哥塔斯科洪水保护成本效益分析

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Economic losses as a result of natural hazards have been rising over the past few decades due to socio-economic development and perhaps climate change. This upwards trend is projected to continue, highlighting the need for adequate adaptation strategies. This raises the question of how to determine which adaptation strategies are preferred to cope with uncertain climate change impacts. This study shows how a multi-disciplinary cascade of hazard modelling, risk modelling, and a cost-benefit analysis can be applied to provide a first indicator of economically efficient adaptation strategies. We apply this approach to an analysis of flood risk and the desirability of flood protection in the state of Tabasco in Mexico, which faces severe flooding on an almost yearly basis. The results show that expected annual damage caused by coastal flooding is expected to increase from 0.53 billion USD today up to 4.12 billion USD in 2080 due to socio-economic development and climate change. For river floods, expected annual damages are estimated to increase from 1.79 billion USD up to 10.6 billion USD in 2080 if no adaptation measures are taken. Based on the estimated risk and cost-benefit analysis of installing flood protection infrastructure, we determined the economically optimal protection standards for both river and coastal floods as at least 100 years, if we take into account climate change. Our main conclusions are robust to key uncertainties about climate change impacts on flood risks, indirect damage caused by floods, the width of the protected floodplains, and the adopted social discount rate. We discuss how our multi-disciplinary approach can assist policy-makers in decisions about flood risk management, and how future research can extend our method to more refined local analyses which are needed to guide local adaptation planning.
机译：由于社会经济发展，由于社会经济发展和气候变化，由于社会经济发展，由于自然灾害而导致的经济损失一直在上升。这一向上趋势预计将继续，突出需要适当的适应策略。这提出了如何确定哪些适应策略优先考虑到不确定的气候变化影响。本研究显示了如何应用风险建模，风险建模和成本效益分析的多学科级联如何提供经济上有效适应策略的第一个指标。我们采用这种方法来分析墨西哥塔巴斯科国洪水风险和洪水保护的可取性，几乎每年都面临严重的洪水。结果表明，由于社会经济发展和气候变化，预计由沿海洪水造成的预计由沿海洪水造成的年损害从今天的0.53亿美元增加到2080年的41.2亿美元。对于河流洪水，如果没有采取适应措施，预计年度损害估计估计从17.9亿美元增加到2080美元，高达106亿美元。根据安装防洪基础设施的估计风险和成本效益分析，如果我们考虑到气候变化，我们确定了河流和沿海洪水的经济上最佳的保护标准。我们的主要结论是对气候变化对洪水风险影响的关键不确定性，由洪水造成的间接损害，受保护的洪水平均宽度以及采用的社会折扣率的关键不确定性。我们讨论了我们的多学科方法如何协助政策制定者在关于洪水风险管理的决定中，以及今后的研究如何将我们的方法扩展到更加精致的本地分析，以指导当地适应计划所需的局部分析。

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