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Stratospheric geoengineering impacts on El Nino/Southern Oscillation

机译：Stratospheric Geoengineering对El Nino / Southern振荡的影响

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摘要

To examine the impact of proposed stratospheric geoengineering schemes on the amplitude and frequency of El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variations we examine climate model simulations from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) G1-G4 experiments. Here we compare tropical Pacific behavior under anthropogenic global warming (AGW) using several scenarios: an instantaneous quadrupling of the atmosphere's CO2 concentration, a 1% annual increase in CO2 concentration, and the representative concentration pathway resulting in 4.5Wm(-2) radiative forcing at the end of the 21st century, the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario, with that under G1-G4 and under historical model simulations. Climate models under AGW project relatively uniform warming across the tropical Pacific over the next several decades. We find no statistically significant change in ENSO frequency or amplitude under stratospheric geoengineering as compared with those that would occur under ongoing AGW, although the relative brevity of the G1-G4 simulations may have limited detectability of such changes. We also find that the amplitude and frequency of ENSO events do not vary significantly under either AGW scenarios or G1-G4 from the variability found within historical simulations or observations going back to the mid-19th century. Finally, while warming of the Nino3.4 region in the tropical Pacific is fully offset in G1 and G2 during the 40-year simulations, the region continues to warm significantly in G3 and G4, which both start from a present-day climate.
机译：为了检查所提出的平流层地理工程方案对EL Nino / Southern振荡（ENSO）变化的影响，我们从地理工程模型兼容项目（GeoMIP）G1-G4实验中检查气候模型模拟。在这里，我们使用几种情况比较热带太平洋行为（AGW）下的热带太平洋行为：大气的CO 2浓度的瞬时四倍，CO 2浓度的1％增加，以及导致4.5wm（-2）辐射强制的代表浓度途径在21世纪末，代表浓度途径4.5场景，在G1-G4和历史模拟下的情况下。在接下来的几十年中，AGW项目下的气候模型在热带太平洋上相对均匀。与在持续的AGW下发生的那些相比，我们发现在平坦化学地理工程中没有统计学上显着变化，尽管G1-G4模拟的相对简洁度可能具有这些变化的可检测性有限。我们还发现，ENSO事件的幅度和频率在历史模拟或返回19世纪中期的观察中发现的可变性的可变性或G1-G4没有显着变化。最后，在热带太平洋中的Nino3.4区域的变暖在40年的模拟期间在G1和G2中完全抵消，而该地区在G3和G4中仍然显着升温，这既从当今的气候开始。

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