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Present and future nitrogen deposition to national parks in the United States: Critical load exceedances

机译：对美国国家公园的现状和未来的氮沉积：临界负荷超越

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摘要

National parks in the United States are protected areas wherein the natural habitat is to be conserved for future generations. Deposition of anthropogenic nitrogen (N) transported from areas of human activity (fuel combustion, agriculture) may affect these natural habitats if it exceeds an ecosystem-dependent critical load (CL). We quantify and interpret the deposition to Class I US national parks for present-day and future (2050) conditions using the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model with 1/2 × 2/3 horizontal resolution over North America. We estimate CL values in the range 2.5-5 kg N ha-1 yr-1 for the different parks to protect the most sensitive ecosystem receptors. For present-day conditions, we find 24 out of 45 parks to be in CL exceedance and 14 more to be marginally so. Many of these are in remote areas of the West. Most (40-85%) of the deposition originates from NOx emissions (fuel combustion). We project future changes in N deposition using representative concentration pathway (RCP) anthropogenic emission scenarios for 2050. These feature 52-73% declines in US NOx emissions relative to present but 19-50% increases in US ammonia (NH3) emissions. Nitrogen deposition at US national parks then becomes dominated by domestic NH3 emissions. While deposition decreases in the East relative to present, there is little progress in the West and increases in some regions. We find that 17-25 US national parks will have CL exceedances in 2050 based on the RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 scenarios. Even in total absence of anthropogenic NOx emissions, 14-18 parks would still have a CL exceedance. Returning all parks to N deposition below CL by 2050 would require at least a 50% decrease in US anthropogenic NH3 emissions relative to RCP-projected 2050 levels.
机译：美国国家公园是保护区，其中自然栖息地应为后代保存。如果超过人类活动区域（燃料燃烧，农业），则沉积人为氮（N）可能会影响这些自然栖息地，如果它超过生态系统依赖性临界负荷（CL）。我们使用Geos-Chem Global Chemical Transople模型与北美的1/2×2/3水平分辨率的Geos-Chem全球化学传输模型来量化和解释本日和未来（2050）条件的课程。我们为不同公园估计2.5-5千克NA-1 YR-1的CL值以保护最敏感的生态系统受体。对于当前的条件，我们发现45个公园中的24个是Cl超越，14个甚至要略有下面。其中许多都在西部的偏远地区。大多数（40-85％）沉积源自NOx排放（燃料燃烧）。我们使用代表性浓度途径（RCP）人为发射方案为2050年进行N沉积的未来变化。这些特征在美国NOx排放中的52-73％下降，但美国氨（NH3）排放量增加了19-50％。美国国家公园的氮沉积被国内NH3排放成为主导。虽然沉积相对于现在的沉积减少，但西部几乎没有进展，在某些地区增加。我们发现，基于RCP8.5和RCP2.6场景，17-25美国国家公园将在2050年拥有CL超标。即使在完全没有人为NOx排放，也仍有14-18个公园仍然有一个Cl.将所有公园返回到2050以下下面的沉积将需要相对于RCP预计的2050水平的美国人为NH3排放量至少50％降低。

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  • 来源
    《Atmospheric chemistry and physics》 |2013年第17期|共13页
  • 作者

    Ellis R.A.; Jacob D.J.; Sulprizio M.P.; Zhang L.; Holmes C.D.; Schichtel B.A.; Blett T.; Porter E.; Pardo L.H.; Lynch J.A.;

  • 作者单位

    School of Engineering and Applied Sciences Harvard University Cambridge MA United States;

    School of Engineering and Applied Sciences Harvard University Cambridge MA United States;

    School of Engineering and Applied Sciences Harvard University Cambridge MA United States;

    Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences Harvard University Cambridge MA United States;

    Department of Earth System Science University of California Irvine CA United States;

    Air Resources Division National Park Service Fort Collins CO United States;

    Air Resources Division National Park Service Denver CO United States;

    Air Resources Division National Park Service Denver CO United States;

    USDA Forest Service University of Vermont Aiken Center Burlington VT United States;

    Office of Air and Radiation United States Environmental Protection Agency Washington DC United States;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 大气科学（气象学）;
  • 关键词

    Present; future; nitrogen;

    机译：存在;未来;氮;

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