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Objective evaluation of surface- and satellite-driven carbon dioxide atmospheric inversions

机译：表面和卫星驱动二氧化碳大气反转的客观评价

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We study an ensemble of six multi-year global Bayesian carbon dioxide (CO2) atmospheric inversions that vary in terms of assimilated observations (either column retrievals from one of two satellites or surface air sample measurements) and transport model. The time series of inferred annual fluxes are first compared with each other at various spatial scales. We then objectively evaluate the small inversion ensemble based on a large dataset of accurate aircraft measurements in the free troposphere over the globe, which are independent of all assimilated data. The measured variables are connected with the inferred fluxes through mass-conserving transport in the global atmosphere and are part of the inversion results. Large-scale annual fluxes estimated from the bias-corrected land retrievals of the second Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2) differ greatly from the prior fluxes, but are similar to the fluxes estimated from the surface network within the uncertainty of these surface-based estimates. The OCO-2-based and surface-based inversions have similar performance when projected in the space of the aircraft data, but the relative strengths and weaknesses of the two flux estimates vary within the northern and tropical parts of the continents. The verification data also suggest that the more complex and more recent transport model does not improve the inversion skill. In contrast, the inversion using bias-corrected retrievals from the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) or, to a larger extent, a non-Bayesian inversion that simply adjusts a recent bottom-up flux estimate with the annual growth rate diagnosed from marine surface measurements both estimate much different fluxes and fit the aircraft data less. Our study highlights a way to rate global atmospheric inversions. Without any general claim regarding the usefulness of all OCO-2 retrieval datasets vs. all GOSAT retrieval datasets, it still suggests that some satellite retrievals can now provide inversion results that are, despite their uncertainty, comparable with respect to credibility to traditional inversions using the accurate but sparse surface network and that are therefore complementary for studies of the global carbon budget.
机译：我们研究了六个多年全球贝叶斯二氧化碳（CO2）大气反转的集合，其在同化观察中变化（来自两个卫星或地表空气样测之一的列检索）和运输模型。在各种空间尺度上首先将推断年度通量的时间序列相互比较。然后，我们基于全球自由对流层中的准确飞机测量的大型数据集来客观地评估小型反演​​集合，其与所有同化数据无关。测量的变量通过全局大气中的大规模保护传输与推断的通量连接，并且是反转结果的一部分。从第二次轨道碳观测所（OCO-2）的偏置校正土地检索估计的大规模年度助碳从先前的助熔剂差异很大，但与从表面网络估计的磁通量类似于这些基于表面的不确定性估计。基于OCO-2的和基于表面的反转在飞机数据的空间中投射时具有类似的性能，但两个助焊剂估计的相对强度和弱点在大陆的北部和热带部分内变化。验证数据还建议更复杂，最近的传输模型不会提高反转技能。相反，使用偏置校正检索从温室气体观察卫星（GOSAT）的反演，或者在更大程度上进行非贝叶斯反演，这只会调整最近的自下而上的助焊剂估计，并达到从海洋表面诊断的年增长率测量均估计大量不同的助焊剂，并少拟合飞机数据。我们的研究突出了一种方法来评估全球大气反转。如果没有关于所有OCO-2检索数据集的有用性与所有GOSAT检索数据集的一般索赔，它仍然认为一些卫星检索现在可以提供尽管他们不确定的不确定度，但是与传统反转的可信度相比，尽管存在不确定性，但是准确但稀疏的表面网络，因此对全球碳预算的研究是互补的。

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