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Quantifying the contribution of anthropogenic influence to the East Asian winter monsoon in 1960-2012

机译：在1960 - 2012年度量化人为影响对东亚冬季季风的贡献

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摘要

The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is greatly influenced by many factors that can be classified as anthropogenic forcing and natural forcing. Here we explore the contribution of anthropogenic influence to the change in the EAWM over the past decades. Under all forcings observed during 1960-2013 (All-Hist run), the atmospheric general circulation model is able to reproduce the climatology and variability of the EAWM-related surface air temperature and 500 hPa geopotential height and shows a statistically significant decreasing EAWM intensity with a trend coefficient of ~-0.04 yr~(-1), which is close to the observed trend. By contrast, the simulation, which is driven by the same forcing as the All-Hist run but with the anthropogenic contribution to them removed, shows no decreasing trend in the EAWM intensity. By comparing the simulations under two different forcing scenarios, we further reveal that the responses of the EAWM to the anthropogenic forcing include a rise of 0.6o in surface air temperature over East Asia as well as weakening of the East Asian trough, which may result from the poleward expansion and intensification of the East Asian jet forced by the change in temperature gradient in the troposphere. Additionally, compared with the simulation without anthropogenic forcing, the frequency of strong (weak) EAWM occurrence is reduced (increased) by 45% (from 0 to 10/7). These results indicate that the weakening of the EAWM during 1960-2013 may be mainly attributed to the anthropogenic influence.
机译：东亚冬季季风（EAWM）受到许多因素的影响，这些因素可以被归类为人为迫使和自然迫使。在这里，我们在过去几十年中探讨了人为影响对EAWM变化的贡献。在1960 - 2013年（全观察）期间观察到的所有强制下，大气通用循环模型能够再现eAWM相关的表面空气温度和500 HPA地球势高度的气候学和可变性，并显示出统计上显着降低的EAWM强度趋势系数为约-0.04 yr〜（-1），接近观察到的趋势。相比之下，模拟由与所有神秘的运行相同的迫使，但随着对它们的人为贡献，表明EAWM强度的趋势没有降低趋势。通过比较两种不同的迫使情景下的模拟，我们进一步揭示了EAWM对人为强制的反应包括在东亚的表面空气温度下的0.6o的上升，以及东亚槽的削弱，这可能是由东亚喷射的膨胀扩展和强化通过对流层温度梯度的变化。另外，与没有人为强制的模拟相比，强（弱）EAWM发生的频率减少（增加）45％（从0到10/7）。这些结果表明，1960-2013期间EAWM的弱化可能主要归因于人为影响。

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  • 来源
    《Atmospheric chemistry and physics》 |2019年第1期|共9页
  • 作者

    Xin Hao; Shengping He; Huijun Wang; Tingting Han;

  • 作者单位

    Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education Nanjing University for Information Science and Technology Nanjing 210044 China;

    Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education Nanjing University for Information Science and Technology Nanjing 210044 China;

    Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education Nanjing University for Information Science and Technology Nanjing 210044 China;

    Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education Nanjing University for Information Science and Technology Nanjing 210044 China;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 大气科学（气象学）;
  • 关键词

    Quantifying the contribution; anthropogenic influence; East Asian winter monsoon in 1960-2012;

    机译：量化贡献;人为影响;1960 - 2012年东亚冬季季风;

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