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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Biometeorology: Journal of the International Society of Biometeorology >The potential impact of future climate on the distribution of European yew (Taxus baccataL.) in the Hyrcanian Forest region (Iran)
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The potential impact of future climate on the distribution of European yew (Taxus baccataL.) in the Hyrcanian Forest region (Iran)

机译：未来气候对欧洲酵母区（Raxus Boadtalal）分布的潜在影响（伊朗）

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摘要

The Hyrcanian Forest region is rich in relict species, and endemic and endangered species. Although there are concerns about climate change, its influence on tree species in the Hyrcanian forests in the north of Iran is still unidentified.Taxus baccatais among the few conifer species found in the region, and the present study aims to evaluate the potential impact of climate change on the distribution ofT. baccata. For this purpose, we used ensemble species distribution modeling with ten algorithms and based on two geographic extents (global and regional) and climate data for different climate change scenarios. For the regional extent, we calibrated the models in Hyrcanian forests including the three provinces in the north of Iran. For the global extent, we calibrated the models on the whole range distribution ofT. baccata. In both cases, we applied the models to predict the distribution ofT. baccatain northern Iran under current, 2050, and 2070 climates. In regional extent modeling, precipitation of coldest quarter and in global extent modeling temperature seasonality emerged as the most important variables. Present environmental suitability estimates indicated that the suitable area forT. baccatain Hyrcanian forests is 5.89 x 10(3) km(2)(regional modeling) to 9.74 x 10(3) km(2)(global modeling). The modeling suggests that climate change under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 8.5 is likely to lead to strong suitability reductions in the region, with just between 0.63 x 10(3) km(2)(regional modeling) and 0.57 x 10(3) km(2)(global modeling) suitable area in 2070. Hence,T. baccatarisks losing most currently suitable areas in the Hyrcanian forests under climate change. The results of the present study suggest there should be focus on conservation of areas predicted to remain suitable through near-future climate change and provide an estimate of the availability of suitable areas for the regeneration ofT. baccataand its use in reforestation.
机译：Hyclanian森林地区富有封锁物种和地方和濒危物种。虽然有关于气候变化的担忧，但它对伊朗北部寒冷森林树种的影响仍然是未识别的。该地区发现的少数针叶树种类中的塔克斯·博士，目前的研究旨在评估气候的潜在影响改变分销。 Baccata。为此目的，我们使用了与十种算法的集合物种分布建模，并基于两个地理范围（全球和区域）和气候数据的不同气候变化情景。在区域范围内，我们校准了Hycranian森林的模型，包括伊朗北部的三个省份。在全球范围内，我们校准了整个范围分布的模型。 Baccata。在这两种情况下，我们应用了模型来预测分配。 Baccatain北伊朗在当前，2050年和2070年的气候下。在区域范围内建模，最冷的季度降水和在全球范围内的建模温度季节性被出现为最重要的变量。目前的环境适用性估计表明合适的区域堡垒。 Baccatain Hyrcanian森林为5.89 x 10（3）公里（2）（区域建模）至9.74 x 10（3）公里（2）（全球建模）。该模型表明，代表性浓度途径（RCP）8.5下的气候变化可能导致该地区的强效益降低，均为0.63×10（3）公里（2）（区域造型）和0.57 x 10（3） KM（2）（全球建模）2070年合适的区域。因此，T。在气候变化下，Baccatisks失去了寒氰林森林中最适合的地区。本研究的结果表明，应重点关注通过接近未来气候变化保持适当的地区的保护，并提供适当的再生区域的可用性的估计。 Baccataand它在重新造林中使用它。

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